Defining complex interdisciplinary societal problems
Defining complex interdisciplinary societal problems
Thesis
A theoretical study for constructing a co-operative problem analyzing methodology:
the methodology COMPRAM
Dorien J. DeTombe
Prof. Dr. Dorien J. DeTombe Founder and Chair International - , Euro - , West-Euro- & Dutch Operational Research Research Group Methodology of Societal Complexity Sichuan University, Chengdu, P.R. China
Price € 36,50 (Euro)
Complex interdisciplinary societal problems include problems such as the fast growth of metropolitan cities in the developing countries, global environmental problems, the Aids problem, but also problems of the transport of goods and persons, and the communication of data. In all these cases knowledge and data are often missing, and there is uncertainty as to how the problem is going to develop. In addition, there are often many people and organizations involved. Many of these problems are either ill- or undefined. Before interventions can be suggested the problem needs to be defined.
This study is a fundamental theoretical approach towards a methodology for defining these problems: the COMPRAM methodology. COMPRAM stands for complex problem analyzing methodology. The methodology is based on the theory of complex interdisciplinary societal problems, systems theory and chaos theory. The methodology supports a co-operative multi-disciplinary team that analyzes the problem. The analysis is assisted by a facilitator.
Working on the basis of the theories cited above, the communication among the multi-disciplinary team is supported by a seven layer computer model in which the main phenomena involved in the problem are expressed in different models, from a verbal description to a system dynamic computer model.
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CIP-DATA KONINKLIJKE BIBLIOTHEEK, DEN HAAG
DeTombe, Dorien J.
Defining complex interdisciplinary societal problems : a theoretical study for constructing a co-operative problem analyzing methodology: the methodology Compram / Dorien J. DeTombe,
- Amsterdam : Thesis Publishers
Also published as thesis University Utrecht, 1994. -
With ref. - With summary in Dutch.
ISBN 90-5170-302-3
NUGI 652
Subject headings: methodology/ problem analyzing / social problems/ computer science.
ã 1994 Dorien J. DeTombe, Amsterdam
Prof. Dr. Dorien J. DeTombe Founder and Chair International - , Euro - , West-Euro- & Dutch Operational Research Research Group Methodology of Societal Complexity Sichuan University, Chengdu, P.R. China
CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION 1
1 DESIGN OF THE STUDY 5
1.0 Introduction 5
1.1 Motivation of the theme 5
1.2 Defining the main concepts
1.2.1 What are complex interdisciplinary societal problems? 6
1.2.2 General characteristics of complex interdisciplinary 9 societal problems
1.2.3 Defining a problem 10
1.3 Scientific importance of the study 11
1.4 Importance of the study for society 11
1.5 Kind of study 11
1.6 Formulation of the research problem 12
1.7 Research questions 13
1.8 Method of research 14
1.9 Theoretical points of view 16
1.10 Constraints and bottlenecks 17
1.11 Theme of the study 19
1.12 Summary and conclusions 19
2 COMPLEX INTERDISCIPLINARY SOCIETAL PROBLEMS 21
2.0 Introduction 21
2.1 What is a problem and what is problem handling? 22
2.1.1 What is a problem? 22
2.1.2 Problem handling 24
2.2 Different kinds of problems 25
2.3 When is a problem solved? 34
2.4 When is something a problem? 36
2.5 To whom is it a problem? 36
2.6 Interventions 37
2.7 Who should handle the problem? 37
2.8 Research question 1a 38
2.9 Research on problem solving 38
2.9.1 Selz and Bahle 39
2.9.2 De Groot and problem solving in chess 39
2.9.3 Newell & Simon's theory of problem solving 44
2.9.3.1 Thinking as information processing 44
2.9.3.2 The problem space 46
2.9.3.3 Defining a problem 47
2.9.3.4 The kind of problems 47
2.9.4 Reflecting these theories of problem solving 49
2.9.5 Our ideas about problem handling 50
2.10 Differences between problems dealt with in research in cognitive 54
psychology and complex interdisciplinary societal problems
2.11 Summary and conclusions 58
3 HUMAN PROBLEM HANDLING 63
3.0 Introduction 63
3.1 Sub-cycles in the problem handling process 63
3.2 Phases in the sub-cycles of the problem handling process 64
3.3 The first sub-cycle of problem handling: defining a problem 65
3.3.1 Awareness and forming a (vague) mental idea 65
3.3.2 Information processing and mental ideas 67
3.3.3 From a mental idea to a conceptual model of the problem 70
3.3.3.1 The mental idea 71
3.3.3.2 Extending the mental idea by gathering 73
information
3.3.4 Selection of hypotheses and data 74
3.3.5 Making a model of a problem 75
3.3.5.1 The use of a model 78
3.3.5.2 Kinds of models 79
3.3.5.3 Different languages in which models can be 79
expressed
3.3.5.4 Knowledge islands 80
3.3.5.5 Simulation models 81
3.3.6 The conceptual model 82
3.3.7 The aggregation level of a problem 84
3.3.8 The scope of a problem 86
3.3.8.1 When should the scope be narrowed? 88
3.3.9 The relation between problem defining and interventions 90
3.4 The second sub-cycle of problem handling: changing the problem 92
3.4.1 Constructing the empirical model 92
3.4.1.1 The empirical model in relation to reality 93
3.4.1.2 Data 93
3.4.2 The handling space 95
3.4.2.1 Levels of constraints 95
3.4.2.2 Some examples of changes of different levels 96
of contraints
3.4.2.3 Kinds of constraints 97
3.4.3 Hypotheses and interventions 98
3.4.3.1 Suggesting interventions 98
3.4.4 From an empirical model to a scenario 99
3.4.4.1 Criticism derived from the theoretical ideas of 100
complex problems
3.4.4.2 Criticism from system theory 100
3.4.4.3 Criticism from chaos theory 105
3.4.5 Interventions 108
3.5 Problem handling phases of other researchers 110
3.6 Rationality in problem handling 113
3.6.1 Decision making 114
3.7 Rational problem handling techniques 117
3.7.1 Trial and error 117
3.7.2 Algorithm 118
3.7.3 Heuristic 120
3.7.4 General problem handling techniques and domain related
121 problem handling techniques
3.8 Knowledge 121
3.8.1 Knowledge for problem handling 121
3.8.1.1 Domain related knowledge versus commonsense 122
knowledge
3.8.1.2 Context dependent versus context independent 122
knowledge
3.8.2 Different levels of knowledge 123
3.9 Summary and conclusions 123
4 THE COMPUTER AS A TOOL FOR THE ANALYSIS AND 127
DEFINITION OF COMPLEX INTERDISCIPLINARY
SOCIETAL PROBLEMS
4.0 Introduction 127
4.1 The computer as a tool for problem handling 129
4.2 Introduction to Artificial Intelligence 130
4.2.1 The history of Artificial Intelligence 130
4.2.2 Intelligence 132
4.3 Artificial Intelligence principles 135
4.4 Problem solvers based on the paradigm of Artificial Intelligence: 137
general problem solvers and expert systems
4.4.1 The first general problem solvers 137
4.4.2 Recent general problem solvers: SOAR and ACT* 139
4.5 Expert Systems 142
4.5.1 Knowledge based systems 145
4.6 Constructing the conceptual model in a knowledge based system 149
4.7 First and second generation knowledge based systems 153
4.8 Theories about knowledge based systems 153
4.9 Summary and conclusions 155
5 SOME EXAMPLES OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF KNOWLEDGE 161
BASED SYSTEMS IN THE NETHERLANDS INTERMEZZO
5.0 Introduction 161
5.1 Constructing knowledge based systems 162
5.2 The Oil Company 163
5.3 The Banking Company 167
5.4 The Insurance Company 171
5.5 The Chemical Company 173
5.6 Some comments 177
5.7 Summary and conclusions 178
6 CONVENTIONAL PROGRAMS FOR SUPPORTING COMPLEX 183 INTERDISCIPLINARY SOCIETAL PROBLEMS
6.0 Introduction 183
6.1. The difference between programs based on the paradigm of 184
Artificial Intelligence and conventional computer programs
6.2 Decision support systems 185
6.2.1 Decision support systems and management
information systems 185
6.2.2 What is a decision support system? 186
6.2.3 What are the theoretical ideas behind decision support
systems? 188
6.2.4 Which kind of problems can be supported by a decision
support system? 188 6.3 Group decision support systems 189
6.4 The performance of group decision support systems 192
6.5 Group decision support systems in relation to the analysis and 195
definition of complex interdisciplinary societal problems
6.6 Summary and conclusions 196
7 A METHOD FOR ANALYZING AND DEFINING COMPLEX 197 INTERDISCIPLINARY SOCIETAL PROBLEMS
7.0 Introduction 197
7.1 Finding a problem 198
7.1.1 Awareness of the problem 198
7.1.2 Whose problem is it and who is going to handle the 200
problem?
7.1.3 What kind of problem is it? 201
7.2 Starting handling complex interdisciplinary societal problems 202
7.2.1 Co-operative problem handling 202
7.2.2 Gathering information 202
7.2.3 Positive and negative aspects of co-operative problem 205
handling
7.2.4 Selecting participants 214
7.3 How to construct a conceptual model 216
7.4 Computer tools to support analyzing and defining complex 219
interdisciplinary societal problems
7.5 A list of conditions for a method for analyzing and defining 230
complex interdisciplinary societal problems
7.6 Summary and conclusions 238
8 THE METHOD COMPRAM 241
A method for co-operative analysis and definition of complex
interdisciplinary societal problems
8.0 Introduction 241
8.1 The aim, range and content of the method COMPRAM 241
8.2 A brief description of the method COMPRAM 250
8.3 Summary and conclusions 298
9 AIDS AS AN EXAMPLE OF A COMPLEX INTERDISCIPLINARY 301 SOCIETAL PROBLEM
9.0 Introduction 301
9.1 Comparing theoretical statements with the empirical data of the 301
Aids problem
9.2 The relation between scenarios and reality 315
9.3 Summary and conclusions 321
10 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 323
10.1 Summary and conclusions 323
10.2 Future research 341
REFERENCES 343
LIST OF FIGURES 381
APPENDICES
Appendix I : An extended description of the method COMPRAM 384
Appendix II : Group support room 425
SUMMARY in Dutch - Nederlandse samenvatting 433
CURRICULUM VITAE 441
Dr. Dorien J. DeTombe, Ph.D.
Chair Operational Research Euro Working Group Complex Societal Problems
P.O. Box. 3286, 1001 AB Amsterdam, The Netherlands, Europe
Tel: +31 20 6927526
E-Mail:
DeTombe@nosmo.nlhttp://
www.geocities.com/doriendetombeÓ Dorien J. DeTombe, All rights reserved, update January 2007