Aids,
Complex Societal Issues and Simulation
XVI ISA
World Congress of Sociology
Research
Committee on Logic and Methodology RC33 2006
Dorien
DeTombe
Volume
15
Aids,
Complex Societal Issues and Simulation
XVI
ISA World Congress of
Sociology 2006
Research
Committee on Logic and Methodology RC33
http://www.ucm.es/info/isa/congress2006/rc/rc33_durban.htm
Volume 15
Dorien DeTombe
ã
Greenhill & Waterfront, Dorien J. DeTombe
Publisher:
Greenhill & Waterfront,
Europe:
Amsterdam
, The
Netherlands
;
Guilford
,
UK
North-America:
Montreal
,
Canada
Contact us:
greenhillwaterfront@hotmail.com
ISBN
90-771-71-20-
Version
001, 18 pages, March 2006
Nugi
661, 652, 654
Language
English
10
Euro
XVI
ISA
World Congress of Sociology
Research
Committee on Logic and Methodology RC33
http://www.ucm.es/info/isa/congress2006/rc/rc33_durban.htm
Complex Societal Issues
Chair:
Dorien J. DeTombe,
International Research Society on Methodology of Societal Complexity
P.O. Box. 3286, 1001 AB Amsterdam,
The
Netherlands
,
Europe
Tel: +31 20 6927526
E-Mail:
DeTombe@lri.jur.uva.nl
http://www.geocities.com/doriendetombe
The
subject of Methodology Handling Complex Societal Issues:
Methodology
of Handling Complex Societal Issues focuses on methods and tools for analyzing,
structuring, guiding and evaluating complex societal problems.
Complex
societal problems are often policy problems that can occur in many fields,
like in the Agro-industry (Mad-Cow disease, BSE; Foot- and Mouth disease; Fowl
Plague), in the transportation sector, in healthcare (Malaria, HIV/AIDS, Sars,
Flu), in Water affairs. It focuses also on handling local safety problems like
large city issues and natural disasters as flood and hurricanes and global
safety problems like war, terrorism. Although many of these issues have a
different cause, they have so much in comment that they can be approached in
the same way. Besides that, being in
Africa
means also to be confronted with the complexity of the AIDS/HIV problem.
Complex
societal problems, as such, are unstructured, dynamical and constantly
changing and have a large impact on society on macro, meso and on micro level.
Handling
complex societal problems needs a special interdisciplinary approach. The
content knowledge comes from content experts. The process knowledge comes from
facilitators. The attention of the research group is on the methods and tools
facilitators need for supporting these kinds of problems. The facilitators use
methods specially created for the field of societal problems combined with
methods and insights derived from their original field like medicine, law,
economics, societal sciences, methodology, mathematics, computer sciences,
technology, engineering sciences, chaos theory and operational research. Often
a combination of methods is needed. In this way the field uses all kind of
methods from social sciences and operational research. An often-used approach
is simulation. A simulation model is one of the powerful tools to describe
societal complexity. With simulation models one cannot only understand the
causal relations between the phenomena but also see what effect changes have.
The
set of lectures focuses on methodology for handling real life complexity; the
emphasis is on subject AIDS/HIV and/or the use of simulation models in
complexity.
Keywords:
Methodology, complex societal issues, decisions, simulation, HIV/ Aids
Abstracts
1
Modeling the social policy in a disordered institutional surrounding and
assessing risks in making decisions
Study
of the case of Serbia
Adzic, Sofija
Doctor
of science, full professor
Faculty of
Economics,
Subotica
,
Segedinski
put 9–11 ,Yu – 24000
Subotica
,
Serbia
&
Montenegro
Phone:
++ 381 24 55
24 94
E-mail: adzic@eccf.su.ac.yu
Adzic, Jasminka
Mathematical
High School,
Belgrade
,
Serbia
&
Montenegro
From the
beginning of the XIXth century up to the collapse of socialism and
restoration of capitalism in the early nineties of the XXth century,
Serbia
was characterized by the specific system of social protection. Its basic
feature was on the direct integration of social protection in the frame of
economic subjects. This form of institutional regulation of social protection
created a long term social equilibrium under the conditions of very modest
economic basis. Poverty and social fragmentation did not represent an
important problem in
Serbia
.
With
the restoration of capitalism, in the period of only fifteen years, was
created a social situation wherein poverty and other social problems in
different ways, jeopardized ca 9/10 of the population of
Serbia
. Actual social problems are first all, the consequence of the model of
transitional macro management and decomposition of the former common state
with other South-Slavian peoples.
Obviously, in this period, solutions in the domain
of social protection and human development were looked for in an unsystematic
way and in accordance with the dominant interests of political and economical
elites. The
final result is the institutionally unregulated model of social protection,
appearance of various forms of poverty and social discrimination and massive
appearance of social pathology as well. Institutional disorder, dynamics and versatility
of social problems and low degree of “ex ante” foresee ability of results
and costs as well, are limiting the application of conventional modeling and
evaluation of attributes of social policies.
Accordingly, the problem of
making decisions in the definition of the contents of social policy attributes
in
Serbia
is treated as an ill-structured problem. To the opinion of Authors, the
methodology of modeling social policies to the measure of individuals and
their families, as an ill-structured problem, allows, in a theoretically valid
way, to treat indistinctness and vagueness being inherent in subjective
preferences, goals and limitations, under conditions wherein does not exist
science, practice and tradition in respecting formal institutional structures.
On
the basis of this thesis, the methodology of modeling the attributes of social
policies is developed, based on the combination of following techniques: (1)
Methodology for soft systems, (2) Conception of making decisions on the basis
of functional hierarchy of layers and (3) Analysis of risk in making decisions.
The
test of the proposed methodology is performed on the example of implementation
of the systematically organized program for help in food for poor people in
Serbia
. The selection of optimal solutions takes place step by step. The skill of
operationalization is in looking for optimal solutions within the following
paradigms: competition, cooperation and learning within the framework of vague
assemblies in the chain: {Actors, Aggregates} ->
{Goals of social policy} -> {Measures and instruments of social
policy}. Accordingly, in the present work, special attention is paid to
the problem of the development of methodology of risk analysis and selection
of concrete attributes of social policy, on the basis of two groups of
criteria.
The
first one covers the analysis of consequences of decisions on the basis of:
(1) Impact to the life and health of human beings, (2) Impact to human
development and transmission of consequences to next generations, (3) Impact
to the increase (decrease) of individual responsibility for social security,
(4) Consequences for public finances and (5) Impact to the culture of life and
work.
The
second group covers the analysis of the problem of multi-attribute analysis of
the usefulness in making decisions by considering following phenomena: (1)
Basic aspects of behavior of human beings: (a) Rational behavior, (b)
Emotional (irrational) behavior, and (c) Protection of personal interests on
account of common ones, (2) Problems due to the impossibility of statistic
(exact) checking social consequences of the application of concrete attributes
of social policy, (3) Protection of current social, political and economic
benefits instead of long terms ones, (4) Differences in the size of risk
between decision makers and users, (5) Problem of solutions imposed by
narrower social, ethnic, political or economic groups and (6) Problem of
inequality of time lag in the manifestation of social problems.
Key words:
Modeling the attributes of social policy, Credibility of social policy,
Disordered institutional surrounding, Methodology for soft systems,
Methodological conception of making decisions on the basis of functions
hierarchy of layers, Risk analysis.
2
Organized
rape as an aspect of warfare
Bey,
Deborah MSW,
MPA
Doctoral
Candidate in Social Work and
Sociology
University
of
Michigan
1036 South Main St
#H-2
Ann Arbor
,
Michigan
48104
tel.:
734-213-0392
dbey@umich.edu
Organized
rape has been an integral aspect of warfare for a long time even though
classics on warfare have predominantly focused on theorizing "regular"
warfare, that is, the situations in which one army encounters another in a
battle to conquer or defend a territory. Recently, however, much attention has
been paid to asymmetric warfare &, accordingly, to phenomena such as
guerrilla tactics, terrorism, hostage taking & a range of identity-related
aspects of war such as religious fundamentalism, holy war, ethnic cleansing
& war rape. In fact, war rape can be taken as a perfect example of an
asymmetric strategy. In war rape the soldier attacks a civilian (not a fellow
combatant) & a woman (not another male soldier), & does this only
indirectly with the aim of holding or taking a territory. The primary target
here is to inflict trauma & through this to destroy family ties &
group solidarity within the enemy camp. This article understands war rape as a
fundamental way of abandoning subjects: rape is the mark of sovereignty
stamped directly on the body, that is, it is essentially a bio-political
strategy using (or better, abusing) the distinction between the self & the
body. Through an analysis of the way rape was carried out by the predominantly
paramilitary Serbian forces on Bosnian soil, this article theorizes a two-fold
practice of abjection: through war rape an abject is introduced within the
woman's body (sperm or forced pregnancy), transforming her into an abject-self
rejected by the family, excluded by the community & quite often also the
object of a self-hate, sometimes to the point of suicide. This understanding
of war rape is developed in the article through a synthesis of the literature
on abandonment (Agamben, Schmitt) & abjection (Bataille, Douglas, Kristeva)
& concomitantly it is argued that the penetration of the woman's body
works as a metaphor for the penetration of enemy lines. In addition it is
argued that this bio-political strategy, like other forms of sovereignty,
operates through the creation of an "inclusive exclusion". The woman
& the community in question are inscribed within the enemy realm of power
as those excluded.
In this
paper we simulate how the potential social structure and health aspects of
rape impact the economic well-being of individuals, families and community.
In February
2002, Human Rights Watch conducted research missions to refugee camps in
Chad
and to the displaced persons camps in
South Darfur
to determine patterns of sexual and gender-based violence against women and
girls as part of an ethnic cleansing campaign by Sudanese government forces
and militias. This document argues for immediate protection for the ethnic
groups from which the rebel movements, the Sudan Liberation Army and the
Justice and Equality Movement, are supplied.
Excerpted
from the author's (2001) Global Sex, the article explores the globalization of
institutions & ideologies that link sex & politics. It views the
changing attitudes toward sexuality through the lens of anthropology, feminism,
& neo-Marxism, yet recognizes that sexuality & gender requires more
nuanced understandings. The greater homogeneity & inequality byproduct of
globalization are extending to practices concerning sexuality, gender, &
the body. Among numerous examples explored are the changing structure &
role of the family, & especially the impact of neo-liberal economics on
the family. Greater affluence, urbanization, & foreign influences have
brought changes in marriages, with less emphasis on social & economic
arrangements & more on individualistic concerns. Yet, economic change has
brought destabilizing forces that are destroying many families. Some
developing countries are moving from the extended family relationships of
pre-capitalism to the post nuclear family in one generation. Sexual practices
in various countries, feminist issues, sex work, homosexuality, domestic
violence, rape, & global travel in search of sexual freedoms are but a few
of the topics discussed. L. A. Hoffman.
Sudan
is a signatory to the 1949 Fourth Geneva Convention, which
dictates that civilians must be protected in times of war. Rape and sexual
violence are crimes that target civilians almost exclusively. These acts were
afforded the status of war crimes at the International Criminal Tribunal for
the former
Yugoslavia
. And in
Rwanda
's criminal court, systematic rape was labeled genocide. These two decrees
were a victory for campaigners for women's rights. But the prevalence of
sexual violence in
Darfur
shows how little protection these decisions truly confer. Both Amnesty
International and the UN High Commissioner for Refugees assert that in
Sudan
rape is widespread-and possibly systematic. If these claims are not sufficient
to prompt international intervention then the legal framework for addressing
these issues is too weak.
3 The effects of relational complexity on group
performance
Results from an agent-based simulation model
Biggiero,
Lucio
Full
Prof. of Organization Science,
LUISS
University
,
Via O. Tommasini 1, Roma, 00162,
Italy
Tel:
+39 06 86506555,, E-mail: lbiggier@luiss.it
University
of L’Aquila, Piazza del Santuario 19, Roio Poggio, 67040, Italy
Tel:
+39 0862 434861, E-mail: biggiero@ec.univaq.it
Sevi, Enrico
PhD student, LUISS University, Via O. Tommasini 1, Roma, 00162, Italy
Tel:
+39 06 86506555, E-mail: esevi@luiss.it
The
most general and important conclusions are that:
i)
listing in
order of increasing degree of complexity, parallel is followed by sequential
and then by reciprocal interdependence;
ii)
more
complex interdependencies do require more complex norms. This latter
conclusion is an exemplar confirmation of the law of requisite variety.
Keywords:
agent-based models, complexity, coordination theory, group performance, law of
requisite variety, organization science, theory of interdependence.
4 Aids in
Africa
is a Complex Societal Problem
DeTombe, Dorien (MSc.Ph.D.)
Chair
International Research Society on Methodology of Societal
Complexity
P.O. Box. 3286, 1001 AB
Amsterdam
, The
Netherlands
,
Europe
Tel: +31 20 6927526
E-Mail: DeTombe@lri.jur.uva.nl
http://www.geocities.com/doriendetombe
Africa
is one of the continents that is severely attacked by the
HIV/Aids epidemic. This threat was already well know in 1990. Nevertheless the
governments in
Africa
as well as the World Health Organization were reluctant to take appropriate
measurements at the moment it was possible to slow down the epidemic.
In
Africa
the HIV/Aids epidemic was too long denied; in the world the HIV/AIDS epidemic
was too long regarded as a medical problem to which a medical intervention
should be the answer, although it was clear from the beginning that at least
in the first decade a medical answer (vaccination) was not possible. The
exclusive emphasizing on a medical answer prevented other more adequate
measures.
The HIV/Aids
epidemic has an enormous impact on the continent of Africa, especially south
from the
Sahara
. It is already unbalancing the equilibrium in organizations and in different
states. The huge HIV/AIDS problem in
Africa
will increase to enormous proportions in the next ten years when not effective
interventions are taken.
Only in the
last years the HIV/Aids epidemic is seen as a complex societal problem. This
means that it is not a solely healthcare problem, but a problem that
influences all corners of the society.
Because it
is a complex societal problem, the approach for the problem must be found in
the field of Societal Complexity. An efficient way of handling this enormous
complicated problem is by using the COMPRAM method (DeTombe). The COMPRAM is
especially developed to handle complex societal problems (DeTombe, 1994; 2003)
The HIV/Aids
problem is a complex societal problem which needs a structured integral
strategic approach. This approach can be found with the COMPRAM approach. With
the COMPRAM approach a better more sustainable interventions can be found,
which saves lives and money by doing a mutually coordinated effort in
attacking the problem in an integral structured way. A mutually integral
approach increases the effects of the interventions on the society.
The COMPRAM
approach is a guided and structured way of problem handling of huge societal
problems. The approach recognizes that in this process knowledge, power and
emotion play an important role. The method prescribes an integral approach
including all aspects and all actors at an early moment in the problem
handling process in order to find mutually acceptable solutions. The approach
emphasizes defining the problem before looking for a solution, this prevents
overlooking important aspects.
The problem
handling process contains six major steps from analyzing the problem to
evaluation of the results. In the first step the problem is approached as a
knowledge problem where experts are invited to model the problem together. In
the second step the problem is seen as a power problem in which the major
actors are invited to give their view on the problem. In the third step
experts and actors try to find solutions based on scenario’s of the problem.
The group processes are guided by a facilitator who uses a scale of methods
and tools to support the process. The facilitator acts on behalf of a problem
owner.
Handling a
problem in a more structured way then usual is done gives the opportunity get
to overview of the problem, to see where interventions can be done, to
anticipate on the interventions and to get an impression of the effect of the
interventions. Trying to slow down the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the developing
countries is a humanitarian obligation, and an economic demand, therefore one
should use all effort, brains and power to slow down the disaster. One of the
means we have here is using a structured problem handling approached from the
filed of societal complexity of which the COMPRAM method is one.
DeTombe,
Dorien (1994) Defining complex interdisciplinary societal problems.
A theoretical study for constructing a co-operative problem analyzing method:
the method COMPRAM.
Amsterdam
: Thesis publishers
Amsterdam
(thesis), 439 pp. ISBN 90 5170 302-3
DeTombe, Dorien (2003) Handling
Complex Societal Problems (Applied on the Aids/HIV Problem) In Henk
Becker and Frank Vanclay International Handbook of Social Impact
Assessment Conceptual and Methodological Advances Edward
Elgar Publishers 2003 ISBN 1 84064 935 6,
page 296-315p
5 Simulation
of Complexity
Dijkum, Cor van , Dr.
Department of Methodology and Statistics
Faculty of Social Science Utrecht University
Heidelberglaan 2 ,3584 CS Utrecht ,The Netherlands
tel. work: /31302534911
tel. home /31206622002
email:
c.vandijkum@fss.uu.nl
http://www.fss.uu.nl/ms/cvd/cvd.htm
Our society
is confronted with complex problems such as the pollution of our environment
by our ever growing industry, the accelerated
spread of diseases such as aids, flue, sars, because our growing
mobility and densely populations. Many stakeholders with different interests
and viewpoints are involved in those problems and they are not of a constant
nature but always evolving and changing in manifestation.
From a
scientific point of view it not easy to analyze and handle those problems.
They are complicated, to be approached by different disciplines, to be updated
because of changing circumstances, but most of all to be framed in a different
scientific logic than is in fashion in the social sciences. One has to enter a
new way of reasoning such as is expressed in the mathematical language of
complexity to understand the essence of complex problems.
First of
all. The source of complex problems are, according to mathematicians, time
related events that are processes. They are dynamic and as a consequence to be
expressed in dynamic equations, that are differential
equations. Secondly.
Those differential equations has to be non linear to grasp the
essential pattern of those processes. Thirdly. Because one can not solve those
non linear differential equations analytically one has to do computer
simulation to get the outcome of these processes. In this way the unforeseen
pattern of, for example, the
spread of flue, expressed in non linear differential
equations, can be better observed, understood and described in a qualitative
way. With this, the natural sciences have made a mind shift and were better
prepared for the surprises natural phenomena produces when you understand,
simulate and observe well. For the social sciences the fascination of non
linear differential equations will show up when one realize that human
interaction can be understood and described by those equations. That is
explored by economists, sociologists, in psychology, as well in other social
sciences, such as a keen student can conclude from his exploration of
interesting developments in the social sciences by using Google.
In this
paper I will explain why complex human behavior can be better expressed in non
linear differential equations than by linear multivariate models such as is
normally done in the social sciences. The concept of feedback is introduced to
demonstrate how recursive differential equations are more appropriate to
describe behavior than linear multivariate models. Thereafter, the surprises
of the simulation of a number of classic models of non linearity, such as the
Verhulst equations of saturated growth, the Volterra-Lotka equations dealing
with competing populations, and the self-organizing model of Prigogine will be
revealed and explained. I will relate those explorations of non linearity with
own empirical research of complex human behavior, in the field of health
psychology, developmental psychology, criminology, linguistics and methodology.
It will be showed how simulation research produces insight in human behavior.
It will also be made clear how mathematical and statistical methods, supported
by software such as Stella, Powersim, Madonna and Matlab, are useful for
simulation research. In the end it will
be explained how non linear models can be confronted by empirical data and be
validated also in a statistical way, for example by making use of a modified
Kalman filter.
DeTombe
D.J., & Dijkum C. van (1996) (Eds.). Analyzing
Complex Societal Problems: a Methodological Approach. München : Rainier Hampp Verlag.
Dijkum C. van, DeTombe D., Kuijk E.. (1998)
(Eds.) . Validation of Simulation Models. Amsterdam: Siswo.
Dijkum C. van, Landsheer H. (2000). Experimenting
with a Non-linear Dynamic Model of Juvenile Criminal Behavior. Simulation
& Gaming, Vol.31,No.4, 479-490.
Dijkum C. van (2001). A
Methodology for Conducting Interdisciplinary Social Research. European Journal
of Operational Research,Vol.128,Iss. 2, 290-299.
Zouwen H. van der , Dijkum C. van (2001). Towards
a methodology for the empirical testing of complex social models. In: H. van
der Zouwen & F. Geyer (eds.), Sociocybernetcs: complexity, autopoisis, and
observation of social systems. (pp. 223-240).
Westport
: Greenwood Publishing Group.
Dijkum C. , Mens-Verhulst J. van, Kuijk E. van, Lam N. (2002), System
Dynamic Experiments with
Non-linearity and a Rate of Learning, Journal of Artificial Societies and
Social Simulation, Vol. 5, 3.
Schroots J., Dijkum C. van
(2004). Autobiographical Memory Bump- A Dynamic Lifespan Model. Dynamical
Psychology: An International, Interdisciplinary Journal of
Complex Mental Processes. (http://www.goertzel.org/dynapsyc/dynacon.html)
6 The
Relativity of Societal, Scientific and technological Progress – Need for a
New World Order
This work
“ The Relativity of Societal Scientific and technological Progress – Need
for a New World Order’ has been jointly written by Prof. Dr. Timi Ecimovic,
Sir Prof. Dr. Roger Haw,
Dr. Elmar A Stuhler,
Prof. Dr. Slavko Kulic, IOM,
Arch. Drago Muvrin,
Prof. Dr. Danijel Vrhovsek
and Prof. H.A.Shankaranarayana,
Prof. Emeritus Dr. Matjaz Mulej,
and Mr. S. Josip Tavcar.
This work has been written for ISA XVI World Congress of Sociology,
Durban, South Africa on the sustainable future of our civilization, to be held
between 23- 29 July 2006.
ABSTRACT:
“Is there
a need for a New World Order?” This
question has to be addressed if sustainable future, intended to harmonise
civilization with nature is recognized as an important goal.
This paper
is a presentation of the methodology of the notification of complex societal
problems and possible solutions by applying the system theory. System theory
works at the levels of concept formation, analysis, synthesis and case study.
With rapid societal changes and consequent challenges from nature, a great
impact is felt on the climate. To
comprehend this and to evolve a methodology to adapt to this, our civilization
should seek sustainable future as an immediate goal.
It is a slow and gradual process. World
peace should become an ideal. As
Gandhi stated, “Be the change you want to see in the world.”
Thus, to attain such a harmony of one world, once peace, we have move
towards the concept evolvement of One Earth, One Government, and One Society
and its evolution.
Food,
water, shelter, clothing and science are the sum total of the basic
achievements of our civilization. These
are attained through human activities and are influencing our socio-economic
system. These are basic needs, the
gratification of which is fulfilled through nature, space and environment.
These resources as water, land and air have become important issues.
Science can become a part of these issues, at the individual, national
or global levels.
A new
approach has been instituted to tackle the complex problems of research/scientific
issues by adopting ‘Thinking Theory’ and ‘Case Study Research’.
This approach has given rise to a more dynamic view of LIFE, its ORIGIN,
the present and future.
What is
sustainable future? How do we co-opt science to maintain the harmony of our
civilization through preservation of nature?
The
scientific background of the presentation is book “System Thinking and
Climate Change System (Against a Big “Tragedy of Commons” of all of us)”
ISBN 961 – 236 – 380 – 3 displayed at www.institut-climatechange.si
, at which Dialectical System Theory (Mulej) and all other system theories
have been reviewed.
Keywords
Methodology, Complex
Societal Issues, Case Study New World Order, World Peace, World Government,
Water, Land and Air Environment, Science, Society, Civilization, Sustainable
Future, Nature, Space and Environment Protection, the Climate Change System.
7
Visual Problem Appraisal ‘Kerala’s Coast’ - A simulation for
learning on complex problems
Bert
Enserink,
Faculty of Technology, Policy and
Management, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5015, 2600 GA Delft, The
Netherlands, Phone: +31.15.2788071,
E-mail: b.enserink@tbm.tudelft.nl
Loes
Witteveen
Larenstein
University
of Professional Education,
P.O. Box
7
, 7400 AA
Deventer
, The
Netherlands
Phone: +31.570.684643, E-mail: L.M.Witteveen@larenstein.nl
Visual
Problem Appraisal (VPA) is a realistic open simulation, constructed as a
consultancy mission, positioning participants in the role of a consultant
traveling to a foreign destination to analyze a complex situation. The VPA is
a film-based simulation that aims to encourage and support (prospect)
professionals to sharpen their analytical competencies by actively observing
the explicit articulation of the various problem perceptions of the
stakeholders encapsulated in filmed interviews.
In 2003,
staff members of Indian and Dutch universities and Indian filmmakers produced
a Visual Problem Appraisal (VPA) set about Coastal Zone management in Kerala,
South India a tropical coastal area stressed by high population pressure and
developmental activities. Rapid political and cultural changes and extreme
social stratification add to the complexity of the issue. The VPA set is based
on 23 interviews with stakeholders like policy makers, traditional fisherman,
clam pickers, sand miners, trawler owners, researchers, environmentalist, and
rice farmers. These stories witness the discrepancy between the coastal zone
regulation act and the subsistence problems experienced by the coastal
population. The policy maker exposes the good intentions incorporated in the
coastal zone regulation and notifies the absence of a translation in the local
language whilst the fisherman long for a different future for their children
without being able to formulate concrete suggestions how to realize this wish.
All interviews were filmed on location and combine a deep compassion for the
various stakeholder perspectives with effective critical distance. Windows of
opportunity can be extracted and policy makers and other stakeholder groups
will be motivated to re-design policymaking and policy implementation.
VPA
was designed to serve as a tool for training students in the international
classroom in interpreting complex problems. VPA ‘Kerala’s Coast’ was
made to be used as a tool to train
students of the master course Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Cochin
University of Science and Technology (CUSAT), and of the Van Hall Institute,
Larenstein
University
and Delft University of Technology in the
Netherlands
.
Reactions
from the film team, staffers and interviewees during the filming and
production process lead to the idea that VPA might work as well as a tool for
social learning for the direct stakeholders. Indications were the meetings
with stakeholders they too had never met before and whose stories had been
untold so far. The making of the VPA in that respect already showed that
observing direct stakeholders on location and having people tell their own
stories gives new insights.
Consequently
we sought for an opportunity to test the hypotheses that the VPA might be a
tool for social learning. In co-operation with CUSAT authorities we were able
to organize and facilitate four two-day workshops with different publics,
ranging from CUSAT students in coastal zone management, lecturers involved in
Social Security Schemes to local stakeholders of the Thycattussery Block
Panchayat and professionals of the department of Fisheries.
From the
evaluations of the workshops we conclude that VPA are a good tool for social
learning. Participants indicated they not only learned about integrated
coastal management but 75% of the
participants indicated they learned about the perspectives of the different
stakeholders and 90% says that they now do understand better why people in the
coastal zone act and work the way they do. Two/thirds indicated that
participating in the VPA workshops changed their perspective on coastal zone
problems, which we consider to be an indication of real social learning and
the effectiveness of VPA.
In
this paper we describe the design of the visual problem appraisal as a method
for analyzing and structuring complex problems. We will present the evaluation
outcomes of the use of VPA “Kerala’s Coast” both in the classroom and in
the field experiment in Kerala, where it was tested as a tool for stimulating
stakeholder dialogue and social learning.
Acknowledgement
For
organizing and co-facilitating the Kerala workshops we are indebted to dr. A
Ramachandran, director of examinations CUSAT, and dr. A.N. Balchand, professor
at the
School
of
Marine Sciences
, CUSAT respectively.
8 A System Dynamics
Model for Intentional Transmission of HIV/AIDS using Cross Impact Analysis
Linet
Ozdamar
Izmir
University
of Economics, Sakarya Cad. No.156
35330,
Balçova,
Izmir
–
Turkey
Email
: linetozdamar@lycos.com, lozdamar@hotmail.com
Chandra
Sekhar Pedamallu
Nanyang Technological University, Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering,
Div. of Systems and Engineering Management,
Singapore
E-mail: pcs_murali@lycos.com
The
system dynamics approach is a holistic way of solving problems in real –
time scenarios. This paper proposes a system dynamics approach for modeling
the phenomenon of intentional transmission of HIV/AIDS by non-disclosure. The
model is developed using the Cross Impact Analysis method of relating entities
and attributes relevant to the risky conduct of HIV+ individuals in a given
community. The model can be simulated to predict the impacts of non-disclosure
in the spread of HIV. It can also simulate the effects of intervention
policies that can be adopted by policy makers.
Key words:
HIV/AIDS, Intentional transmission, Cross-Impact Analysis, Policies.
9
The Methodology of Institutionalism in the Investigation of Migration
Processes
Petrov, Vladimir
Head of the
Department of Sociology of
Kuban
State
University
(
Krasnodar
,
Russia
), member of Russian
Association
of Sociologists (РOС)
and International
Sociological Association (ISA)
E-mail: petrov@hist.kubsu.ru
Migration
policy and social policy addressed to migrants, organization of managing the
migration flows including problems of entry and departure, legal base of stay
and capability of migrants, their position, status and roles in the definite
territory, regulation of their interaction with local population and
functional characteristics of migration – these all are spheres, where the
institutional regulation of social interactions appears and exists.
Institutionalization of migration process has its specific character
determined by its structure and peculiarities of relationships, which arise
and function under its influence. The structure of migration process
represents the sum total of interdependent components: objective conditions, a
subject of process and such subjective factors as goal, needs, social acts
concerning satisfaction of needs, stimuli. Separate migrants and social groups
of migrants interact with a releasing society and an accepting one through all
stages of migration. This is accompanied by the forming of social relations
and rising of different institutional forms by means of which interactions
acquire the regulated character.
The institutional approach to the analysis of migration processes
allows characterize them through the system of concepts, such as social
control, status, role, norms, rules, functions etc. A principal consideration
of modern institutionalism theory refers to the understanding of importance of
formal and informal restrictions for social interactions that are “game
rules” established by people in society.
The formal side of institutionalization of migration processes is
contained in the fact that these processes, on one hand, possess their own
institutional organization and, on the other hand, they are included in the
sphere of institutional influence of economic, political and legal
institutions, institutions of state administrative management, norms and rules
of vast net of socio cultural institutions of a releasing society and an
accepting one. At the same time the institutional forms such as non-state,
public associations of migrants appear. These forms are realized in practice.
The traffic of migrants and their stay at some territory are inevitably
connected with the defining of their legal position and institutional
restrictions regulating their stay at this territory. In the investigation of
international migration there is a set of criteria and identifying procedures
by means of which the status of a migrant in any cases of migration is defined
in an accepting country. Factors institutionally influencing the right of
entry and position of migrants in a country of stay are considered as such
criteria. They are: citizenship, goal of stay, the fact that a person moved
from one country to another.
The status of a migrant is the sum total of expectations and demands
prescribed by institutions of an accepting society, which a migrant or social
group of migrants interacts with and which forms the field of social
responsibilities and duties. The status of a migrant includes the legal
definition of capability in an accepting society and social rights and
possibilities in connection with definite territory and definite social space.
Acceptance or rejection of demands of an accepting society divides labor
migrants into legal and illegal ones by their status. Ethno social
characteristics are imposed on social ones and they create the presentation
about ethnic status of a migrant.
In case of labor migrants attention is paid to the institutional
organization of their interactions with an accepting society: simplicity/complexity,
clarity/uncertainty of prescribed rules and consistency/inconsistency in their
realization by an accepting side. They are such social institutions, which
regulate:
1) entry (i.e.
conditions of the right of entry defined by an accepting side);
2) stay (i.e.
conditions and possibilities of goal realization, use of general and specific
rights, responsibility connected with accordance to demands and expectations
of an accepting side);
3)
departure (i.e. voluntary departure, after the expiry date, or deportation and
its conditions: order of putting it into practice, maintenance of people
condemned to deportation, financing problem of such acts).
Some debatable problems are seen in this perspective. What should the
volume of necessary rights belonging to different categories of migrants in
the space of rights and possibilities of an accepting society be? What should
methods of control, conditions, possibilities and mechanisms of these rights
be?
It is extremely important to pay attention to restrictions existing, on
one hand, as informal rules in an accepting society and, on the other hand,
those, which are introduced into it by migrants as bearers of a special
culture. The presence of these demands determines the contradiction of status
and role characteristics of labor migrants. These characteristics include
cultural patterns of behavior of that social community and ethnic group,
previous identity of which was maintained with. At the same time these status
and role characteristics contain prescription to familiarize with prevalent in
an accepting environment cultural patterns and follow them. So, the idea of
acceptable or convictable and in some cases prosecuted cultural patterns is
created in the process of communication and social interaction of migrants
with local population. Thus, the sphere of normative order, informal value
expectations concerning migrants’ behavior, rules, demands and sanctions are
established and they regulate social interactions between migrants and an
accepting society.
The prescription of migrants’ status and corresponding role
expectations concerning their behavior is common for migrants and it is
expressed in the stigmatization of a person by this indication. It obviously
happens in case of ethnic migrants and those places where they form their
communities. The stigmatization displays itself in existence of acquired
control measures on location of labor migrants and their activities. It is
really significant in accordance to the problem of terrorism, necessity of
preventing and suppression of crime activities, which a part of migrants is
involved in.
Social interactions of migrants with an accepting society are connected
with the necessity and attempts of some concordances: general formal rules of
an accepting society creating possibilities of social interactions for all
members of a society, formal rules of an accepting society created for
migrants in the whole and their separate categories in particular; informal
rules for labor migrants existing in an accepting society, on one hand, and
informal cultural rules of migrants themselves, on the other hand.
The possibility and processes of institutional concordances are
difficult and complex because migrants have different degree of readiness to
live and act in an accepting society, to conform to its formal and informal
rules and expectations. It should be taken into consideration that the
dominating subject of migration processes is representatives of ethnic groups
with broken and destroyed institutionality for whom adaptation and integration
in an accepting society acquires problematic character. Their informal
restrictions accepted in their previous identity and originated from their
native culture can’t be changed as reaction to the change of formal rules.
Informal restrictions possess higher degree of inertness in comparison to
possibilities of changing the formal rules. Informal rules are more stable
while formal ones are more dynamic.
Hence, we see that formal and informal institutions of an accepting
society have great impact on migrants and determine their position and
behavior. In connection to this
analysis the following definition of migration can be formulated: migration of
population is the form of spatial flow, where transferences, entry and
departure, status of stay and capability of migrants in places of new
settlement are determined by social, political, legal, economic and cultural
institutions which can be formal or informal.
Keywords:
accepting society, institutionalism, labor migrants, migration, releasing
society
10
Transdisciplinary case study methodology: a method for integrating complex
societal issues in planning
Walter,
Alexander I.
Swiss
Federal Institute of Technology
Zurich
Institute
for Human-Environment Systems (HESS)
Natural
and Social Science Interface (NSSI) , Transdisciplinary Case Study Research (TCSR)
ETH
Zentrum HAD, 8092
Zurich
,
Switzerland
alexander.walter@env.ethz.ch
Wiek,
Arnim
Swiss
Federal Institute of Technology
Zurich
Institute
for Human-Environment Systems (HESS)
Natural
and Social Science Interface (NSSI) , Transdisciplinary Case Study Research (TCSR)
ETH
Zentrum HAD, 8092
Zurich
,
Switzerland
„Integrative“ has long been and
still is a „magic“ word when it comes to planning processes dealing with
ill-defined, large scale problems that are striving for sustainability. As
desirable this concept is in theory, as difficult is its realization and
validation in practice. Sustainability planning is a particular family of
planning tools and methodologies, which focus especially on the ramifications
of real-world, complex problem solving with the normative concept of
sustainable development. If one, e.g., takes a typical case of city-regional
development in middle Europe, it is clear that a multiple sectors and layers
of the case, which are closely interlinked, have to be taken into account to
derive development strategies. Sustainability planning strives to avoid
conflicting developments of different sectors and layers, and to increase
potential synergistic relationships. Integrative planning is a desirable
concept, which is thought to provide some or all of the three following
benefits:
1. to sustain and promote an integrative
perspective on the case
- to avoid conflicting developments of
sectors
- to identify synergy potentials between
topics and agents
2. to increase efficiency of project
management
3. to initiate and accompany
co-operation between key agents
There is an extensive discussion in
planning and decision-making literature about integrative approaches, covering
the spectrum from Complex Problem Solving and Strategic Planning toTransition
Management and Integrated Assessment (Mingers & Gill, 1997; Ravetz, 2000;
Rotmans et al., 2000; DeTombe, 2001; Scholz & Tietje, 2002; Bell &
Morse, 2003; Mingers & Rosenhead, 2004; Tress et al., 2005). There are
also various integrative research programs on regional and urban development
initiated in the last years (Integrated Development Programs; see as an
example: http://www.klf.at). But so far, the results have been not up the
expectations: The deficits lie mainly in the disconnected decomposition and
synthesis of the subject, insufficient (transdisciplinary) methodology, and a
lack of embeddedness into the political process (cf. Eggenberger &
Partidario, 2000).
The Transdisciplinary Case Study (TCS)
methodology presented in this paper strives for an integrated,
transdisciplinary planning process for sustainable development (cf. Ravetz,
2000).
Its final goal are development
strategies based on a common system understanding,
transparent preference structures and
shared future visions of all key agents. We expect it to lead to better
decisions than traditional sectorized planning approaches, because it
explicitly combines and integrates developments of the different sectors and
layers of the system under evaluation. This is supposed to lead to decisions
which are societal robust (Nowotny et a., 2001), have less conflicts in
sectoral developments and are overall more sustainable. That means that these
decisions have a lower risk of failure, because long- and short-term side
effects are more likely to be taken into account with an integrative approach.
The TCS methodology has been developed and applied for more than ten years at
the Institute for Human-Environment Systems (HES) at the Swiss Federal
Institute of Technology,
Zurich
. It combines a scientific analysis of the problem in focus with an extensive
participatory process. It was developed on an elaborated epistemology of
complex problem solving, and explicitly strives for an integrated approach to
the subject matter. To successfully attain the befits of integration, it
relies on an elaborated epistemology, methodology, and project management (Scholz
& Tietje, 2002; Scholz et al., 2005).
Regarding current pressures on planning
and planners, our methodology tries to cope with the difficulties encountered
in real planning situations: lack of data, high uncertainty, severe pressure
of time and lack of legitimacy of the planners. TCS is not a methodology for
designing all-encompassing masterplans, like planning experts have done in the
70ies, neither is it a reactive day-to-day management approach. With the TCS
methodology we try to construct development strategies, which have a long-term
perspective for development but at the same time give support for present
decisions. The TCS methodology tries to identify, in which areas of the
problem there is still freedom of action, which parts of the problem can act
as levers to influence the whole system and what options and restrictions of
different key agents are. It does not try to predict future system states, it
rather points out possible paths, pitfalls and wrong perceptions of decisions
regarding future development.
To reduce the complexity of the task of
understanding, conceptualizing and analyzing the
problem, the TCS methodology is
organized as a case study. A representative part of the
concerned system is identified by
analytical tools and consultation with key agents. This part of the system is
defined as the „case“, which is then analyzed in depth. According to
Scholz & Tietje (2002), the case study approach is appropriate where the
research phenomenon is a real social and natural system, whose historic
dynamics have to be taken into account and which cannot be separated from its
context. The case study approach used in the TCS is an explanatory design,
trying to derive general insights from a concrete case. It is also embedded in
the sense of Yin (1984) and Scholz & Tietje (2002) starting from and
ending at the comprehension of the case as a whole in its real-world context.
However, the case will be faceted either by different perspectives of inquiry
or by several subunits. This faceting, which partitions the case for analysis,
can be theory-based or based on natural units (e.g. the departments of a
company) (cf. Scholz & Tietje, 2002). Thereby, the problems of case
faceting or decomposition as well as of integration/synthesis occur. In this
paper, we conceptually outline the basics of this integrative planning
methodology for complex societal problems as well as the major steps to be
taken to achieve an overall synthesis of sector-related single results (cf.
Walter & Wiek, 2002). The second part of the paper will contain a case
study, were the approach is explained in detail with a project on regional
development undertaken in the Swiss canton of Appenzell Ausserrhoden in the
years 2001 and 2002.
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