Complex Societal Issues

Global Safety &

Sustainable Development

EURO XXI in Iceland July 2-5, 2006 21st European Conference on Operational Research

Volume 14

Dorien DeTombe

Complex Societal Issues: Global Safety & Sustainable Development

EURO XXI in Iceland July 2-5, 2006 21st European Conference on Operational Research

Volume 14

Dorien DeTombe

ã Greenhill & Waterfront, Dorien J. DeTombe

Publisher: Greenhill & Waterfront,

Europe: Amsterdam , The Netherlands ; Guilford , UK

North-America: Montreal , Canada

ISBN 90-771-71-19-

Version 001, 19 pages, March 2006

Nugi 661, 652, 654

Language English

10 Euro

EURO XXI in Iceland
July 2-5, 2006

21st European Conference
on Operational Research

Methodology of Handling Complex Societal Issues focuses on methods and tools for analyzing, structuring, guiding and evaluating complex societal problems.

Complex societal problems are often policy problems that can occur in many fields, like in the Agro-industry (Mad-Cow disease, BSE; Foot- and Mouth disease; Fowl Plague), in the transportation sector, in healthcare (Malaria, HIV/AIDS, Sars, Flu), in Water affairs. It focuses also on handling local safety problems like large city issues and natural disasters as flood and hurricanes and global safety problems like war, terrorism. Although many of these issues have a different cause, they have so much in comment that they can be approached in the same way. Besides that, being in Africa means also to be confronted with the complexity of the AIDS/HIV problem.

Complex societal problems, as such, are unstructured, dynamical and constantly changing and have a large impact on society on macro, meso and on micro level.

Handling complex societal problems needs a special interdisciplinary approach. The content knowledge comes from content experts. The process knowledge comes from facilitators. The attention of the research group is on the methods and tools facilitators need for supporting these kinds of problems. The facilitators use methods specially created for the field of societal problems combined with methods and insights derived from their original field like medicine, law, economics, societal sciences, methodology, mathematics, computer sciences, technology, engineering sciences, chaos theory and operational research. Often a combination of methods is needed. In this way the field uses all kind of methods from social sciences and operational research. An often-used approach is simulation. A simulation model is one of the powerful tools to describe societal complexity. With simulation models one cannot only understand the causal relations between the phenomena but also see what effect changes have.

The set of lectures focuses on methodology for handling real life complexity with an extra attention to the subject of sustainable development and global safety

Keywords: Methodology, complex societal issues, decisions, sustainable development, global safety
Session I: Complex Societal Issues in general

Discussion on the topic of complex societal problems: global safety
organized by Dr. Cathal Brugha, Prof. Dr. Ken Bowen and Dr. Dorien DeTombe

The aim of the session of Complex Societal Problems on the Euro XXI 2006, is to present a set of lectures focusing on methodology for handling real life complexity, the emphasis can be any subject or sustainable living. A video ‘Village Project’ will be shown and a video of the Balaban Valley Project of Anna Abee on increasing the level of living in rural areas in Turkey .

I-1 Global safety : The COMPRAM Method - Handling Local Natural Disasters as an Example”

Global Safety is the issue that is brought to the attention of politicians lately, specially after the 9/11 incident. Not only terrorism is threatening our safety; there are many kinds of dangers. Although all dangers are in essence manmade we can categorized the threats in natural threat and man made threats; local and global threats. Global natural threats are threats caused by viruses like the flu pandemic, fowl plague and HIV/AIDS; local natural threats are disasters such as hurricanes, avalanches, floods, tsunami’s and earthquakes. Man made threats are global threats like terrorism, climate change, CO2 emission and threats caused by internet and stock exchange.

Man made local threats are wars, terrorism, traffic, pollution by industry and traffic, nuclear power plants and agricultural business threats like BSE. These dangers threaten people, the economy and the stability of states. Handling these kinds of problems belongs to the field of methodology for societal complexity. The claim of this field is that complex societal problems should be handled in according to the approaches, methods and tools, in this field.

In order to create a safer society one needs to know where the danger comes from and what causes the threat. Each threat has different causes and different effects on different elements in society. Therefore one has to carefully analyze the situation, make a distinction between causes and effects, to see what the elements are and how they are related, see which power groups are involved and to find out which package of sustainable changes can have the desired effects.

To find out what we know about the problem, who is effected by it, which parties are involved, who benefits and who suffers, what emotions and political vulnerability are going on, one has to analyze the problem. This needs an interdisciplinary approach. An interdisciplinary group of knowledge experts should analyze the situation and discuss possible changes. Then stakeholders should discuss the issue and give their opinion on the situation. Together the experts and stakeholders should find some fruitful changes. the interventions should be carefully implemented and evaluated on their desired effect on the problem. Each complex societal problem has a knowledge, a power and an emotional element.

Handling a natural disaster like a hurricane, a tsunami or an earthquake takes much preparation to decrease the damage and takes a lot of coordination on the moment of the disaster and a huge support afterwards. This needs scenarios, worked out plans, but also training and coordination. In order to be prepared for disasters multidisciplinary groups of experts can discuss how science and updated technology and communication tools can support the prevention, the moment of and the support afterwards in a disaster. How to prevent unnecessary damages when disasters threatens us, how to coordinate the support, how to communicate during the disaster and how to create fruitful sustainable support afterwards is prescribed by the COMPRAM method. The COMPRAM method is a scientific developed method to handle societal complexity in a bird’s –eye view.

The lecture will introduce the framework method COMPRAM. The COMPRAM method (DeTombe) is especially developed to handle complex interdisciplinary problems and offers a step-by-step approach of analyzing the problem and finding ways of sustainable intervention. The COMPRAM method offers a bird’s-eye view on the complexity of the problem.

I-2 Broadband diffusion in remote and rural Scotland : modelling the impact of policy initiatives

There is considerable interest worldwide in broadband diffusion. This paper identifies the initiatives used to encourage broadband awareness, availability and adoption in remote and rural Scotland and how, if at all, these complement one another. Causal loop diagrams are then developed to identify the main factors that influence broadband diffusion. From these diagrams and empirical data collection, a system dynamics model is derived. This model is used to investigate the impact of initiatives on take-up rate and total adoption.

I-3 The Complexity Paradigm in Management Reconceptualizing

Through treating organizations as complex, nonlinear systems, complexity theory is aimed at research of their erratic nature. When an organization is in a state of bounded instability, order and disorder are intertwined, its behaviour is unpredictable but has some pattern. According to the complexity paradigm, as a functionalist systems approach to management, organizations have to strive to avoid states of stability and instability, and they have to strive to stay in a state of bounded instability, at the edge of chaos, where they can display their potential for creativity and innovation.

Discussion on the topic of complex societal problems: global safety
organized by Dr. Cathal Brugha, Prof. Dr. Ken Bowen and Dr. Dorien DeTombe

Discussion based on the publication of a special issue about global safety in the

Dr. Cathal M. Brugha
Department of Management Information Systems,
University College , Dublin 4,

Ireland

The threat of terrorism is pops up everywhere. There is a demand for global safety. Policy often reacts on effects only by controlling individuals and abusing civil rights. Safety can be handle otherwise. Bowen pleads for total defense by increasing national identity and taken care of education, national identity, healthcare and religious intolerance. Brugha using is his Nomology to analyze the Northern Ireland conflict. This methodology, a managerial tool, gives insights to civil war, terrorist acts and their motivation. DeTombe pleads for finding the real causes by way of the COMPRAM method.

1.The threat of terrorism is frequently popping up in all kinds of ways and in all kinds of places of the world. In reaction there is a large demand for global safety. But the measurements policy makers, stimulated by technological business take, are too shallow. The real causes and relation to terrorism are not thoroughly investigated. Governments often give a too easy and often a technological based and quick answer to these threats.

One of the answers to these threats is controlling; controlling the individual. The first step in controlling the individual is identification of a person. This assumes that the state knows where the danger comes from; from small groups of vaguely identified persons, who might be planning or on their way of performing an attack. To prevent an attack all kinds of controlling is allowed. Laws are rapidly changed to make these state actions legal. In order to prevent terrorist attacks politicians start to create total control over individuals by giving the state the right to follow the individual in all its activities, special his/her travels by tracking him or her down by Geographic Information Systems ( GIS ), by following the person by its cell phone and credit cards, by millions of cameras, and by extending border controls. Border controls not only by passports control, but also by luggage control by X-rays, stripping a person from his or her belt and shoes, by identification though eye scan and fingerprints. By identification on demand of a person in the street, by controlling the books a person reads by viewing the buying systems of the bookstores and lending system of the libraries (in USA based on the patriot act, then pushed over to Europe ). Thus far these intruding acts were reserved for (potential) criminals.

Like in all complex societal problems some people benefit from a problem and some have to pay. All this controlling demands many (new) technological devices and provides work for a whole sector of industry, which is glad to supply the new interventions. Total surveillance of the people by technological interventions cost much money, however it has not the expected effect, in the sense that it has not the effect of preventing terrorism. The effect it has is of controlling the people. Is this the actual goal of all these interventions? Controlling has a direct negative effect on the civil rights of people, their feeling of freedom and the democracy of the state. Controlling provokes fear and fear provokes the demand for safety. It is striking that these freedom provoking acts of governments is initiated by the country of liberty and democracy: the

USA

during the Bush junior administration. Instead of freedom we are moving towards to a society unfortunately well-known under the former

USSR

and clearly shown in East-Germany in the period of 1945-1990, where almost every third civilian watched the two others. We know what effect this was on the economic production and the behavior and the feeling of people.

Is this the price we have to pay for our safety? Have these highly technological devices the effect of preventing terrorist attacks? Looking at a huge attacks of 9/11 New York , which were the start of many of the demonic measurements, we should realize that all these measurements would not have prevented the attack. Some of the persons performing the attack on 9/11 where partly trained in the USA , and were long before the attack in the USA ; there were actually citizens of the

USA

. Looking at suicide bombers we see that suicide bombers are very hard to detect and even harder to prevent doing their terrible acts.

Legal governmental controlling threatens the privacy of the civilians, and by this it threatens democracy. The civilian is under total surveillance, before he or she even has thought of an illegal act. All this controlling demands much money, government money which is, as is shown in the Bush Administration, directly coming from healthcare and education.

In order to make the world a better place to live in and to increase global safety we must know where the threats really come from. What provokes the terrorist to do these acts? What and who stimulate them to do this? What are the causes? And when we know the causes what can we do to change this.

Global Safety is the buzzword that is brought to the attention of politicians lately, especially after the 9/11 incident, of which fighting terrorism is one of the issues. Comparing war and terrorism we see that there are differences and similarities. War and terrorism have in common that these are both ways to ‘solve’ a complex societal problem in a violent way in case of differences in opinion how to rule a state or differences in opinion of who is the owner of the ground, who has the power over the ground or over the resources.

There is a big difference between war and terrorism in the way of spending resources such as people, materials and money. There are big differences in the effect of the interventions: the causalities, damages on each side, like the death of people and damages buildings, cities and whole societies. This difference is in the line of effect. There is a principle difference in legality. The wars are legal. To name a few legal wars: the Second World War and the Vietnam War. These legal wars provoke economic and mental damages on both sides for generations and did not ‘solve’ the problem. However the state has the right of violence and in this way war is legal and a state is allowed to send his young promising boys into the field to kill the young promising boys of the other countries. All legal. War can be defined as legal attacks from one government to another. The state has a legal right to protect his country, soil when attacked by other states.

Terrorism is often started when the same goals as mentioned before are wanted to be reached, but the means are low. There is not enough money, resources or people available for this force. Therefore these groups find an escape route in terrorism. Terrorists try to persuade with violence other groups or states to reach their claims. Terrorism is defined as a ‘war between a group of persons and another group’. This can be a small group of persons or a state. Terrorist group are those groups who have no power in their own point of view or not the means to start a real war. Suicide bombing, water pollution, subway and Internet attacks are then means to put pressure to a state. In Europe there are many examples of terrorist attacks such as in Basque in northern Spain , and the ‘Die Rote Armee Fraction’(RAF) in former in

Germany

. Some groups are fighting for an independent part of the country, and some groups are fighting for justice. Also the actions in

South Africa

by ANC and Mandela and the actions of Gandhi could be seen in the point of view of the government, as terrorist acts.

Neither war nor terrorism is a good answer to, or solution for, a complex societal problem. It only provokes more trouble. Some of the legal recent wars illustrate this, like the first and second Iraq-USA war. Difference in opinion, management of territories, and economic demands can be handled in a less damaging, more human and sustainable way. These issues should be approached as a complex societal problem, and thus handled according the directions of handling a complex societal problem.

The COMPRAM method (DeTombe, 1994-2006) is especially developed to handle these kinds of complex interdisciplinary worldwide problems and offers a step-by-step approach of analyzing the problem and finding ways of sustainable intervention. The COMPRAM method offers a bird’s-eye view on the complexity of the problem.

What can be done in a more human way and what has more effect is discussed by Ken Bowen in its article of ‘Total Defense’, by Cathal Brugha in his article about the Northern Ireland issue and by Herman Kelman in this article on the Palestine-Israel issue. These articles are published in volume 8 of the Journal of Methodology and Models of Complexity. See: http://www.fss.uu.nl/ms/cvd/isj/volume 8 .

Three different aspects of global safety focusing on terrorism and war. Whereas war is a legal defence of a country, ‘played by legal rules’, in essence war is legalized crime and murder. Whereas terrorism is per definition an illegal attack on a country, with small means hoping of large effects to destabilize a country. Both war and terrorism want to reach with their acts certain goals and wants to (re)gain power.

In the article of Ken Bowen of ‘Total Defense’, Bowen pleads for a defense of the country by increasing the national identity and by taken care of education, by taking care of the national identity, taking care of health and internal threats like crimes and disorder and religious intolerance, natural disasters and external threats . A way to approach a total defense is by education . The article of Ken Bowen is based on a lecture presented in 1996 still keeps its value and addresses some topics that are still in the middle of the discussion today.

Cathal Brugha is referring to the

Northern Ireland

conflict. This is a conflict which can be considered referring to terrorism and or civil war. Brugha is using his own methodology Nomology to analyze the situation. This methodology, which is in essence a managerial tool, can help us to give insights in the complex situation of civil war and terrorist acts and motivation

Prof. dr. Kelman focus on the Israel-Palestine case. National identity and the role of the other in existential conflicts. On identity strength and mutual acceptation. He describes the interventions he does by workshops with people from both side to see whether they are able and willing to understand each others point of view.

A nationalistic point of view dominates the discussion; it is we and they; including and excluding; a sociological phenomena that explains some of these acts. We see nationalism in the article of Ken Bowen, nationalism plays a role in the Northern-Ireland conflict and in the Palestine-Israel question. In the three articles national identity plays a key role. In this way there can be made a parallel between these described situation and the situation in former Czechoslovakia and in Turkey-Armenia issue.

DeTombe claims no answers but prescribes using a thorough approach to analyze each unique situation by experts and actors, including knowledge, power and emotions according to the COMPRAM method.

Because of the mission statement of our field of societal complexity we emphasize on methodology. Which method can help handling these complex societal problems and prevent war and terrorism.

II-2 The added value of problem structuring methods

Most papers report positive results obtained with OR/MS Problem Structuring Methods (PSM). Critiques, however, can also be found (Green 2002, Joldersma and Roelofs 2004). These critiques suggest that some PSM might be more suitable for certain problems than others. To understand why and how certain PSM are applied we reviewed papers that describe applications of these methods. The results suggest that: two types of research design can be discerned, little attention is paid to the validity of the outcomes, and the least attention is paid to method verification.

The rapid increase in sexually transmitted diseases, including AIDS, poses a challenge for health educators at the college level. Instead of talking at groups of students, presenting them with the statistics about these diseases can create an environment for a serious conversation about topics relevant to the issue. Then, by asking them to adopt the roles of various societal players, they begin to learn about the several facets of the complex societal problem of maintaining public health. This paper will report on the development of the approach and its presentation will involve participants in a short simulation of the method.

At previous EURO conferences the authors demonstrated the parallels between Brugha's Eight Adjustment Types in Nomology and Bowen's Eight Faces of Research, showed that they reflect an inherent common structure, and proposed how this structure could be used to help managers make decisions in practice by providing frameworks and maps to elucidate issues and resolve situations.

We use this model to extend ideas about Drama Theory, and Confrontation and Collaboration Analysis, which both evolved out of Game Theory.

III-1 Improving the Quality of Life and Rehabilitation of Heavily Eroded Land in Middle Euphrates Basin in Turkey

⁽¹⁾Ministry of Agriculture, Strategy Development Department, Eskişehir Yolu 9.km, 06170 Ankara , Turkey

⁽²⁾ Middle East Technical University , Department of Chemistry, 06531 Ankara , Turkey

In Anatolia , agriculture has been carried out for more than 8000 years by different civilizations. The soil and plant covers have been severely depleted because of intensive use, fires and wars. Improper land use continues to this date. This is especially critical for the lands with slopes that are being used for croplands. The slope in these lands may range from 8-30% and are cultivated. These lands require modern agricultural techniques including terraces, improved plant varieties and irrigation, where appropriate. The other major problem is poor grazing management. Overgrazing is very common and there is little control on the use of public lands except in those areas where forests are being established.

A project was started in 1993 as a result of an agreement between the World Bank and Turkish Government. The objectives of this project were the conservation and development of vegetative structure and water resources, erosion prevention, rehabilitation of farm land and improvement of living conditions of the villagers over the middle basin of the Euphrates River . The sedimentation rate in three largest dams of

Turkey

on this basin; Keban, Karakaya and Ataturk was estimated to be more than 4000 tons/ha/year. Due to inappropriate agricultural practices in rural areas, severe erosion takes place on 63% of total area of

Turkey

. In these regions the population density is lower than the average of

Turkey

and consists of people who are over middle-aged, as the young people move from rural to urban areas for better life standards. Migration is caused both by the attractiveness of the city life and the lack of productive enterprises in the villages.

Within the framework of this project, 54 micro-catchments were selected out of many such areas extending three provinces, Elazıg, Malatya and Adıyaman, for six years of the project period. The total cost of the project was 110 million USD and 77 million USD was covered by the World Bank as a credit, and the remainder by Turkish Government. The project was coordinated by the Ministry of Forestry and several other state organizations. Ministry of Agriculture and Village Affairs, Directorate of Rural Affairs, Directorate of Forestation and Erosion Control participated in the organization.

The actors of the project were the people living in the area, leaders of villages, Muhtar and the Mayor of the Manucipality of the small towns, if existed.

The criteria for selecting a micro-catchment was based on the resources available, such as water, soil, forest, agricultural and livestock potential, a high risk of soil erosion and information about social, cultural and economic situation, but not the least, the population of the region. If the resources were poor for a sustainable living that micro-catchment was not selected.

There were three phases of the project: Discussion and defining the problem and decision making for the solution. During the discussion period, the attention of villagers was attracted to soil erosion and good agricultural practices in their and their grand parents periods. The experts of the project was expected to be free of their prejudices and are not supposed to direct the opinion of the local people. But, the experts asked questions to villagers for their solution to the problems. During the second phase of the study, the experts classified the solutions and participation and contribution of villagers for the implementation of the project were encouraged. In the last stage, all agreed solutions were placed on the maps and consent and signatures of villagers were taken.

After the implementation of this project, a survey was carried out in the watershed areas of provinces of Adıyaman, Elazıg and Malatya for the assessment of the project at 2003. Questionnaires were given to 146 enterprises of villagers in the project area and 123 enterprises in the areas where the project was not implemented. Various parameters and conditions for the most successful cases were determined. The most successful applications were found, where the land erosion was minimized, the fertility of land and income increased by several folds (20 and even more in some cases) when the farmers believed in and supported the project from the beginning and contributed some money and provided labor and resources to this investment project.

The experiences earned from this project will be extended to the future projects towards improving the sustainable living in rural areas.

III-2 Participation of Women and Adolescent in Decision Making in Rural Areas of Turkey

In rural areas important decisions are made by middle aged or older males, women and adolescent are excluded. Older males are conservative on applications of new production techniques and do not care much about production with environmental concerns. In general villagers may accept the new applications when they witness the results of applications of others. Analysis of attitudes of people, participation of experts in decision making process and implemention of some changes to imrove the quality of living in rural areas are considered.

III- 3 A Problem Structuring Method for Complex Societal Decisions: its Philosophical and Psychological Dimensions

A novel approach to problem structuring for decisions relating to the sustainability of public infrastructure is presented. The philosophical (a critical realist ontology and epistemology), psychological (the effect of biases and heuristics on decision outcomes), and systems dimensions (dynamics and emergent properties) of the problem are discussed, and form the basis of the approach. This is structured as a system of “trilemmas”, representing different dimensions of the problem. A case study in the Australian water supply industry is developed to demonstrate the value of the approach.

III-4 The denominators of sustainable rural habitat. Design of a framework for evaluation of sustainable-affordable housing projects

Faculty Technology, Policy & Management, section Policy Analysis, Delft University of Technology

Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Materials Science Group, Delft University of Technology, Center for Rural Development and Adaptive Technology, Cochin University of Technology Technology, Kochi, Kerala, India

Sustainable development was defined in the Brundtland report as “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”. Authors have defined sustainable development in many different ways and differences in definition and delineation lead to different indicators and measurement systems for sustainability. Nevertheless all sustainability evaluations have a common source and conceptually sprout from the three P’s: People, Planet, and Profit.

Habitat, shelter and safety is a primary condition for development and the inadequate housing conditions of more than one billion people in the world urges the need for scaling up housing supply and has become a focus of policy debate (UNCHS, GSS 2000). Developing countries suffer the most acute housing problems: rapid population growth, increased urbanization, little capital and widespread poverty has created serious shelter problems all around the globe. Sustainable habitat can be defined as achieving and maintaining sustainability through housing development by balancing the needs of social progress, economic growth and technology along with conserving and protecting the environment and natural resources.

In this paper a conceptual model and measurement system for sustainable housing is presented, focusing on developing countries and illustrated by a case study after housing projects for the rural poor in India .

India

as a rapid developing economy has many housing programs in place and will serve as an example. The analysis shows that socio-cultural and economical factors are often neglected but should be considered of crucial importance for sustainable housing projects.

The conceptual model of this scheme was developed as part of a PhD research after sustainable –affordable housing and stems from literature research and factors identified by and derived from actors and stakeholders in the field. Four important groups of criteria for sustainable-affordable habitat for developing countries are distinguished: socio-cultural factors, economic factors, technological factors and environmental factors. These factors then were used as a basis for evaluating social housing programs, as criteria for evaluation and consequently translated into engineering design indictors.

This Discussion Presentation is devoted to Operational Research for Better Management of Sustainable Living, exemplified by Balaban Valley Project which is taking place in Balaban Valley, a rural and underdeveloped area about 60 km from Ankara, and might serve as an impulse and model network for similar OR applications in Turkey and other countries.

During the period of integration of Turkey into EU, one of the main difficulties is the large population of people living in the rural areas of

Turkey

. Currently, 35% of the population (i.e., 25 million people) live in small villages in

Turkey

. EU advises

Turkey

to reduce the rural population to the European level of about 6%. This means forcing about 20 million people to migrate to the poor suburbs of large cities in

Turkey

, or to abroad. Improvement of the living conditions in the rural areas is considered to be the basic interest not only of the local people, but also of entire Turkey , and even of Europe on its process of integration. In this time of globalization, local problems, efforts and improvements have their effects at far places internationally. Some of the major challenges for sustainable living in rural areas are: high costs of fertilizers and pesticides used in conventional agriculture, high fuel costs, the uncertainty in decision making on the type of crop to be cultivated for the coming years, limited opportunities for the education of children, and unequal and unbearable workload for men and especially for women. All these issues are closely related to each other, and can be seen as an integrated interdisciplinary complex societal problem. The Balaban Valley Project is proposed to make life sustainable in those places and as an alternative to the reduction of population in rural areas in

Turkey

Energy is an important resource for agriculture and at the same time agriculture can be a resource for energy. The interplay between energy and agriculture is influenced by the availability of land, water, quality of soil, nutrients, livestock, commercial energy and labour. In order to have a clear understanding of this complex relationship, some energy and agricultural cycles are considered: (1) Engine fuel cycle through use of vegetable oil, (2) permaculture cycle for design of nature creating synergy between humans, animals, plants and other “a-biotic” matter such as water, wind, soil and rocks, and (3) waste and irrigation water cycles. The dynamics of these cycles are analyzed through mathematical models choosing appropriate independent and dependent (state) variables and defining parameters. Before handling a complex problem, one has to make a thorough analysis of all aspects of the problem. In the proposed study, this will be realized by an integrated approach based on COMPRAM method.

Ecological land planning, developing renewable energies, sustainable agricultural practices should be based on the information obtained from environment and the behavior of the local people (social data). Group meetings with experts from the fields of agriculture, education, health care, trade, architecture and industrial design have been organized for proposing projects to improve the quality of living in rural areas. The decisions for the selection of projects, their implementation, assessment and any changes to be made will be handled in the framework of COMPRAM method.

This local project with its related international aspects needs a continuous process of learning, of collaboration and partnership. On this way, both in general and at the Discussion Presentation a mix of media is very useful. We will look at a poster with many photos from the villages of Balaban Valley , show questionnaires filled by the local people, show instruments for investigating the soil and various meteorological parameters there, and exhibit local products. By all of these we aim at demonstrating love to the people and a common inviting effort and vision for an improved sustainable living on the country sides of Turkey , Europe and the world.

Increasing the way of living in the rural in the Balaban Valley in Turkey near Ankara .
Other contributors

V-1 Selecting Variables for Analyzing Complex Systems, Applying the Principles of Functional Adequacy and Sufficiency

Institute for Human-Environment Systems, Natural and Social Science Interface, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

Adaptive management of complex human-environment systems as well as decision support concerning complex problems requires sound knowledge about the relevant system variables and their mutual interdependencies influencing system behavior and development. There are some qualitative and quantitative approaches for gaining this knowledge, like system dynamics, methods of (soft) operations research or cross impact analysis. A basic prerequisite of all of these approaches is selecting a suitable set of variables representing the system adequately. Different authors suggest certain methodological procedures for identifying possible variables and selecting a suitable set. Generally, these approaches depart either from a more systemic perspective, applying principles of system theory, or from a more functional perspective, trying to pragmatically identify the relevant parameters for answering the given questions. In our opinion it is, however, necessary to consider both, the functional and the systemic perspective. Therefore, we present a two-step approach for identifying and selecting

a sufficient set of functionally adequate system variables. The first step of the approach aims at evaluating the functional adequacy of possible systemvariables identified in e.g. case specific analysis (surveys etc.), expert-interviews, and structured brainstorming discussions. Therefore, their characteristics concerning certain functional indicators, such as relevance for the problem, accuracy of the definition, or conformity with the given goals (does the variable fit with the spatial, temporal and thematic system boundaries?) are determined. System variables that do not meet the requirements of functional adequacy have either to be redefined or excluded from the preliminary set.

The goal of the second step is to select a sufficient set of the functionally adequate system variables. For doing so, the characteristics of the system variables are determined concerning the systemic aspects of i) formal representation (is it a structural, modal or actional variable; is the variable static or dynamic?), ii) thematic representation (with which deductively defined subsystem does the variable match; for which assessment criterion, focal variable etc. does the variable provide information?), iii) relational representation (is the variable an internal or an external variable concerning the given system boundaries). This analysis provides a sophisticated overview, how well the different systemic characteristics are covered by the system variables. Based on this overview the set of variables could be specifically reduced and supplemented. The concept of sufficiency implies, that this reduction and supplementation also has a functional aspect. According to this concept, the goal of the final set of system variable is not to objectively represent the entire system but to represent it in terms of the given question. Hence no general rule exists how well the different systemic characteristics have to be covered. A system analysis for strategic corporate management might, for example, require more modal and actional variables than an evaluation of urban traffic infrastructures. Therefore the research team has to decide which functions the system representation should accomplish. The presented approach facilitates meeting the defined requirements concerning the system representation and helps to reveal relevant new system characteristics. In our presentation we will show the application of the approach in different analyses of complex human-environment systems such as nanotechnology or urban development.

Knowledge cybernetics is principally concerned with the development of agents like autonomous social collectives that survive through knowledge and knowledge processes. Deriving from epistemological antecedents created by Stafford Beer and explored through notions of ontology by Eric Schwarz, a new form of knowledge management arises that is connected with the notions of Marshall and her new radical classifications for knowledge. These ideas can be closely associated with concepts of lifeworld and the ideas of communicative action by Habermas, and leads to a useful knowledge cybernetic framework. This has the capacity to relate to and develop a variety of what might be thought of as otherwise disparate theories that can ultimately be expressed in terms of knowledge.

V-3 Evaluation of European Social Security Systems with a Micro-Census Simulation Model

Social security systems in 22 European countries are evaluated with a specially constructed indicator. It is based on a micro-census simulation model which combines both empirical (statistical) and normative (rule-based) approaches. The individual answers of unemployed on social security benefits are normatively derived from their personal situations with the OECD Tax-Benefit Models. The empirical data about personal situations are available from EuroStat. The goal is estimating the national average of net replacement rates (NRR) for unemployed persons. Such an indicator of social security shows the average degree with which social benefits compensate the loss of previous earnings.

- (Methodology) a model of micro-census simulation combining statistical data on the population with individual answers computed with a rule-based model,

- (Indicator) an integral quantitative evaluation of social security in Europe, which reveals its total decline by 2004 contrary to institutional improvements,

- (Analysis) an explanation of the decline by a structural change of European labour

markets with rapidly growing `atypical' employment groups (= part-time, temporary, self-employed, etc.) with a lower eligibility to social benefits than normally employed (= permanently full-time),

- (Policy implications) a possible resolution of European policy contradictions by the “basic income model" with “flexinsurance".

Keywords: Composite indicators, social security, European welfare state, European Union, “make work pay" policy.

V- 4 A System Dynamics Model for Intentional Transmission of HIV/AIDS using Cross Impact Analysis

Izmir University of Economics , Sakarya Cad. No.156, 35330, Balçova, Izmir –

TURKEY

Nanyang Technological University, Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering, Div. of Systems and Engineering Management,

Singapore

The system dynamics approach is a holistic way of solving problems in real – time scenarios. This paper proposes a system dynamics approach for modeling the phenomenon of intentional transmission of HIV/AIDS by non-disclosure. The model is developed using the Cross Impact Analysis method of relating entities and attributes relevant to the risky conduct of HIV+ individuals in a given community. The model can be simulated to predict the impacts of non-disclosure in the spread of HIV. It can also simulate the effects of intervention policies that can be adopted by policy makers.