Complex Societal Issues
Methodology
Global Safety & Sustainable Development & Healthcare
EURO
XXII in
Prague
Czech Republic
,
Europe
July
8-11 2007
22 European Conference on
Operational Research
Volume 16
Dorien
DeTombe
Complex
Societal Issues: Global Safety & Sustainable Development &
Healthcare
EURO
XXII in
Prague
,
Czech Republic
,
Europe
July
8-11, 2007
22 European Conference on
Operational Research
Volume 16
Dorien
DeTombe
ã
Greenhill & Waterfront, Dorien J. DeTombe
Publisher:
Greenhill & Waterfront,
Europe:
Amsterdam
, The
Netherlands
;
Guilford
,
UK
North-America:
Montreal
,
Canada
Contact
us: greenhillwaterfront@hotmail.com
ISBN
978-90-77171-21-9
Version
001, 21 pages, May 2007
Nugi
661, 652, 654
Language
English
10
Euro
EURO
XXII in
Prague
July
8-11, 2007
22
European Conference
on
Operational Research
Methodology
of Societal Complexity
Chair:
Dorien J. DeTombe,
International Research
Society on Methodology of Societal Complexity
Euro
working Group on Methodology of Societal Complexity
P.O.
Box. 3286, 1001 AB Amsterdam,
The
Netherlands
,
Europe
Tel: +31 20 6927526
E-Mail:
DeTombe@nosmo.nl
http://www.geocities.com/doriendetombe
The
subject of Methodology Handling Complex Societal Issues:
Methodology
of Handling Societal Complexity focuses on methods and tools for analyzing,
structuring, guiding and evaluating complex societal problems.
Complex
societal problems are often policy problems that can occur in many fields,
like in the Agro-industry (Mad-Cow disease, BSE; Foot- and Mouth disease;
Fowl Plague), in the transportation sector, in healthcare (Malaria, HIV/Aids,
Sars, Flu), in Water affairs. It focuses on handling local safety problems
like large city issues and natural disasters as flood and hurricanes and
global safety problems like war, terrorism. Although many of these issues
have a different cause, they have so much in comment that they can be
approached in the same way.
Complex societal problems are unstructured, dynamical and constantly
changing problems. Each problem has knowledge, power and emotional aspects
and has a large impact on macro, meso and on micro level of the society.
Handling
complex societal problems needs a multidisciplinary approach. The content
knowledge comes from content experts. The process knowledge for handling the
problem comes from facilitators. The attention of the research group is on
the methods and tools facilitators need for supporting these kinds of
problems. The facilitators use methods specially created for the field of
societal problems combined with methods and insights derived from their
original field like medicine, law, economics, societal sciences, methodology,
mathematics, computer sciences, technology, engineering sciences, chaos
theory and operational research. Often a combination of methods is needed.
In this way the field uses all kind of methods from social sciences and
operational research. An often-used approach is simulation. A simulation
model is one of the powerful tools to describe societal complexity. With
simulation models one cannot only understand the causal relations between
the phenomena but also see what effect changes have.
The
set of lectures focuses on methodology for handling real life complexity
with an extra attention to the subject of global safety, sustainable
development and healthcare
Keywords:
Methodology, complex
societal issues, decisions, sustainable development, global safety,
healthcare
Stream:
Methodology of Societal Complexity
Session I:
Societal Complexity and
Safety
Chair
session: Prof. Dr. Cathal M. Brugha
Department of Management Information Systems,
University College Dublin, Belfield,
Dublin
4,
Ireland
.
Cathal.brugha@ucd.ie,
http://mis.ucd.ie/CMSS
Tel.+353-1-716-4708
Session
II: Societal
Complexity and Sustainable Development
Chair
session:
Dr. Cor van Dijkum
Utrecht
University
, Faculty of Social
Sciences, Utrecht, Netherlands, c.vandijkum@fss.uu.nl
Session
III: Societal Complexity and
Healthcare
Chair
session: Dr. Dorien J. DeTombe
International Research
Society on Methodology of Societal Complexity
Chair
Euro Working Group on Methodology of Societal Complexity
P.O. Box. 3286, 1001 AB Amsterdam,
The
Netherlands
,
Europe
Tel: +31 20 6927526
E-Mail:
DeTombe@nosmo.nl
http://www.geocities.com/doriendetombe
Session IV: Prof. Dr Ken Bowen session
Chair
session: Dr. Dorien J. DeTombe
International Research
Society on Methodology of Societal Complexity
Chair
Euro Working Group on Methodology of Societal Complexity
P.O. Box. 3286, 1001 AB Amsterdam,
The
Netherlands
,
Europe
Tel: +31 20 6927526
E-Mail:
DeTombe@nosmo.nl
http://www.geocities.com/doriendetombe
Abstracts
Session I:
Societal Complexity and
Safety
Stream:
Methodology of Societal Complexity
Chair
session Prof. Dr. Cathal M. Brugha
Department of Management Information Systems,
University
College
,
Dublin
4,
Ireland
. Cathal.brugha@ucd.ie
I-1 Multidisciplinary
cooperation in handling patient safety
Dr.
Dorien J. DeTombe
International Research
Society on Methodology of Societal Complexity
Chair
Euro Working Group on Methodology of Societal Complexity
P.O. Box. 3286, 1001 AB Amsterdam,
The
Netherlands
,
Europe
Tel: +31 20 6927526
E-Mail:
DeTombe@nosmo.nl
http://www.geocities.com/doriendetombe
In
System Dynamic and Operational Research scientists model parts of reality to
better understand societal complexity. For
modeling a complex societal issue a multi disciplinary team of experts is
needed to understand the complexity of the phenomenon. A system dynamic
model, as part of the seven layer model (DeTombe,1994) made by a
multidisciplinary team of experts expresses the knowledge about the issue,
and in this way defines the phenomenon. The definition of the phenomenon
includes an analysis of the actors and their power. The quality of the model
improves by the multidisciplinarity of the team. Too often scientists make
models of societal
issues by their own. For
a complex societal issue this is not fruitful and not even possible. One
person or a few persons from the same discipline cannot comprehend all the
phenomena that play a role in the complexity. This is step one of the
COMPRAM methodology.
In
step two each actor group is invited to give their definition of the problem
in the same way as the experts do. In step three of the COMPRAM methodology
a multidisciplinary team of experts (knowledge) and actors (power) is needed
for decision making in order to come to an agreement. The quality of the
model and decisions approves by a smoothly cooperation of people of
different disciplines. These are the first three steps of the COMPRAM
methodology*.
The
key word is multidisciplinarity for knowledge exchange and
multidisciplinarity for communication among the actors. The insights of the
problem and the sustainability of the decisions increase by working in
multidisciplinary teams. However, working with multidisciplinary teams is
very difficult. It is often hard to understand each other and accept each
others expertise. The COMPRAM methodology provides means of establishing
communication among experts and actors. The methodology COMPRAM uses a seven
layer modeling scheme for modeling by a multidisciplinary team of experts a
problem in different ways using different languages in such a way that the
languages within one layer compensate the weak points of the languages in
the other layers. In the seventh layer a simulation model of the problem is
constructed. This system dynamic simulation model is the result of the
insights in the problem developed by modeling the previous layers. In making
this model communication tools such as interview techniques, lectures and
brainstorming by groupware are used.
Analysis
of disasters, such as the terrorist attack on the
World
Trade
Center
, and the damage to
New Orleans
by Hurricane Katrina, shows the effects of a lack of multidisciplinary
communication as a major source of unnecessary casualties. This phenomenon
can also be seen in the field of healthcare and within hospitals.
Within
the field of healthcare there is too less communication between the vertical
and horizontal chain in the healthcare system. The healthcare system
includes aspects as prevention, curing, follow-up afterwards. For instance,
the family doctor-patient relation is not the only relation, it is a knot in
a chain of relations. A family doctor is imbedded in a chain of professional
assistance. There is the horizontal medical chain on the level of the family
doctor: the health visitor, the dentist, the pharmacist, and psychiatric.
The vertical medical chain on the level of the family doctor is: the medical
specialist, hospital, medical research medical industry and insurance
companies.
The
medical world is imbedded in the social world, where medical professionals
and non medical professionals on micro, meso and macro level meet. The
medical world has relations with
law, education, psychology, sociology, policy on local, state and
international level, such as drugs policy, euthanasia and abortion.
The
patient is a person imbedded in a societal relation as daughter, mother,
grandmother, employee and citizen. The illness of a patient can be related
with work, family, partner, children living circumstances and food. It
includes aspects of sociology, psychology and sustainable development.
Improving patient safety includes deliberation, discussion and exchanging
knowledge with all the actors in the field in a multidisciplinary way.
Within
large organizations as hospitals, research shows that due to lack of
multidisciplinary communication the patient’s safety is seriously
threatened**. Due to a lack of standardized procedures multidisciplinary
communication and team work many unnecessary accidents happen. Patient
documents are insufficient, a clear caretaker process is missing and the
information to the patient is unclear. This is recognized by the Dutch
healthcare field and must be improved. This is a clear example of a complex
societal issue where the COMPRAM methodology with its emphasize on
multidisciplinarity should be used.
References:
DeTombe,
D.J. 1994. Defining Complex Interdisciplinary Societal Problems: A theoretical
study for constructing a co-operative problem analyzing method.
Amsterdam
: Thesis Publishers.
DeTombe,
Dorien (2003) Handling Complex
Societal Problems. International Handbook of Social Impact Assessment.
Conceptual and Methodological Advances H. Becker & F. Vanclay. Australia:
Edward Elgar Publishers.
*The Compram methodology is
selected by the OECD to handle global safety as one of the three
methodologies for handling this complex societal issues, based on its ideas
on multidisciplinary handling of a global safety issues by experts and
actors.
(http://www.oecd.org/LongAbstract/0,2546,en_2649_34269_37163752_119666_1_1_1,00.html
).
**
Dutch report 2007-02 Rapport Preoperatief traject on patient safety in the
pre-operation phase, by the Dutch Inspection of Healthcare February 2007
Keywords:
COMPRAM methodology, methodology societal complexity, healthcare,
multidisciplinarity
I-2
Can
we build bridges between liberal democracy and global safety?
Dr. Stephen
Taylor, Biology,
Champlain
Regional
College
, 900
Riverside
Drive,
J4P 3P2
,
Saint-Lambert
,
Quebec
,
Canada
,
staylor@champlaincollege.qc.ca
Rooted in
Greek and Roman philosophy, the features of a liberal democracy were nicely
summarized in the American Declaration of Independence in 1776:
“We
hold these truths to be self-evident:
That
all men are created equal; that they are endowed by their Creator with
certain unalienable rights; that among these are life, liberty, and the
pursuit of happiness. That, to
secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their
just powers from the consent of the governed.”
The
philosophy embodied here was then extended through the development of the
American Constitution and it subsequent amendments including the Bill of
Rights. These principles have
spread widely across the globe and are today found in the constitutions of
many nations and the various charters of rights, including that of the
United Nations.
A
consequence of the spread has been an increase in the number of choices
available to individuals. The
actual number and scope of these choices are too broad to be listed here.
However, just consider for a moment the number of possible options
available for spending a free day: stay home and work on one’s house; go
out to shop where there are innumerable things to look at and purchase; go
to a museum or a library, read a book; or, equally important, just do
nothing. Then there is the
number of things to occupy the mind. The
political choices one can make and the opinions one can form about a
particular subject. There are
the religious choices available including the right to reject all of them.
In the world of education and research, we value our academic freedom,
which again is about the choices that we can make as we look into how things
work or why they don’t. In
recent times, these rights have been extended to more and more individuals
and groups as the notion of freedom to choose one’s way of life is
regarded very highly in the democratic societies.
The general outcome of the extension of choice to individuals has
meant an improvement of the quality of life for the many and has provided
for a rich, diverse, and dynamic society, which extends across the borders
of many countries to much of the world.
Thus
we have built many bridges to connect, individuals and societies to the good
life. The freedom of the
individual in this society is limited at the point where the rights of one
person limit the rights of another person.
We have empowered our governments as the mediators between
individuals and groups, to assure that the choices of some do not impinge on
those of others. Governments
have made laws or rejected laws for this purpose.
Public funds have been used to protect rights and to provide
services, such as education, transport, and health care to the many.
In general, most of the people living in these open societies are now
enjoying a better life than ever before in history.
However,
at the present time our concepts of democracy face a challenge.
We are told that we are living in a new age.
Our world has at the same time grown smaller, while our populations
have grown larger. Our societies
are more complex and more diverse. Unfortunately
certain individuals and groups use the liberty that is accorded them by the
open society to organize schemes which then limit the choices of others.
These range from the common criminal pursuits that have always been
with us, theft, fraud and outright murder, through various forms of violence,
to more subtle forms of limits by the imposition of particular political
and/or religious philosophies on a society.
A paradox of democracy is that it provides the means for a few to
gather the resources to impose limits on the many through perfectly legal
channels. These choices then can
have the effect of altering the choices of the majority and then actually
bringing on the demise of the democratic society itself.
Today,
we must address the issues of both individual and global safety, in the
context of an open and democratic society.
Perhaps, we should think first of some of the global dangers.
All people face major challenges as a consequence of global warming
and climate change. Major health
problems can be imposed on individuals as a consequence of their choices.
The risk of being exposed to a virus infection while travelling is
more frightening to most of us than the worry of HIV/AIDS.
It has been a long time since the nuclear bombings of
Hiroshima
and
Nagasaki
, and most of the world’s people are unaware of the horrors that will
result from even a limited deployment of these weapons.
The use of biological and biochemical weapons have even more
frightening consequences. The
clash of cultures and religions forebodes doom.
We are living in a global culture of fear, and we must be afraid of
that fear itself. That fear can
drive us to accept limits on our freedoms to the long term the detriment of
the society as a whole. In fact,
the concepts on which our open societies are based are at risk and this may
be the greater danger.
Discussion
of this paradox provides us with examples of several complex societal
problems where many different voices must be heard and no simple or
immediate solutions are apparent. The
question remains: how can we build and maintain bridges to the good life
while protecting our cherished rights, and our individual and collective
security? While it is timely to
discuss these issues in an academic forum, it is also necessary to consider
how that conversation can take place in the greater society.
It is imperative that we who value the rights, freedoms, and choices
available in the democratic societies encourage our neighbours to appreciate
our situations. We have never
before had the opportunity to provide widespread education to all people on
a global level. The modern means
of communication, satellite transmission of television and radio, internet,
and cellular phones, are a few examples of technologies that can be deployed
to protect our democratic freedoms through education.
The power of the new technologies resides in their use of
interactivity to encourage conversation across great distances.
We should encourage the use of the weapons of mass education to
inoculate people with the spirit of liberal democracy.
The
COMPRAM methodology developed by Dr Dorien deTombe may be used as an
approach to encouraging this type of conversation.
The strength of this methodology is that it brings people from many
different backgrounds and interests together in a conversation.
The participants are able to express their definitions, views and
opinions, as well as suggestions for problem resolution in a non-threatening
atmosphere. As a result the
people often realize the common aspects among these differences and can
consequently begin moving towards satisfactory solutions.
Applying the methodology to the development of a program of education
for citizenship would open a conversation among participants with a goal of
establishing objectives, topics, and content for particular lessons.
As well they would be encouraged to propose a variety of ways of
conveying these lessons across the society.
Analysis of the participants’ responses and conversation can help
to develop such a program.
Can
small groups of people make a difference?
Before we describe ourselves as powerless, we should consider the
damage being wreaked upon our earth and its inhabitants by relatively small
groups of people who are very determined to implement their agendas.
It is important to our long term global safety that we find ways of
protecting democracy and our freedom to choose our ways of life.
Let us try to maintain our bridges of choices and build new ones
through educational programs for citizenship.
I-3
Modelling the Comprehensive National Threat Assessment:
Example of
Computer Analytic Tool – Integro
Dr. Iztok
Prezelj, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of
Ljubljana
, Kardeljeva ploscad 16, 1000,
Ljubljana
,
Slovenia
, iztok.prezelj@fdv.uni-lj.si
Contemporary
terrorist groups use a variety of operational methods that need to be
accounted for. Groups carry out attacks, have an organisational structure,
organise educational and training activities, move across the border,
recruit new members, break into computer systems, express threats to
specific subjects, gather intelligence information, finance their operations
and activities, deal with smuggling, carry out information and propaganda
campaigns, etc. Terrorism is an example of a complex security threat.
However, terrorism is only one of the dimensions in the threat spectrum.
Health, environmental, economic, military, criminal, information and other
dimensions need to be addressed in the process of threat assessment. First
goal of my presentation is to identify and diagnose the broad spectrum
threats to our societies with special attention to terrorism.
Every
responsible country needs to assess direct and indirect threats. First step
in addressing such a complex threat is threat assessment. The process of
threat assessment needs to be structured according to the charactherictics
of the threats, and several qualitative and quantitative analytical tools
and methods, including computer-aided tools, can be used. Many state actors
need to be involved, such as police, intelligence services, military and
ministry of defence, foreign ministry, ministry of finances, health,
interior, environment, etc. Complexity of threat spectrum determines the
complexity of the assessment process. Second goal of presentation is to
present some results of multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary research
project, coordinated by the Faculty of Social Sciences from Ljubljana, which
finished in summer 2006. Project “Modelling the national threat assessment”
produced a methodology for comprehensive national threat assessment in
terrorist, health, information, military, economic, environmental and
criminal dimension. The interdisciplinary research group, together with
experts from various ministries, produced a big set of indicators, which
reflect the threat intensity with their nominal, ordinal or numerical value.
Complexity of the threat spectrum was reduced down to many indicators
according to the SMART principle (Specific, Measurable, Agreed, Reliable and
Timely). The final product is a web-based computer-aided tool – INTEGRO
– for inputting, analysing, integrating and presenting threat indicators
to the mutisectoral bodies, such as the government, National security
council and other multisectoral groups.
INTEGRO
consists of three modules. First module (DATA INPUT) is a tool for gathering and entering the data on indicators by the relevant
national actors. Indicators are inserted into the data base on the basis of
triple key, containing value of indicator (numeric, ordinal, nominal), level
of attributed threat (scale 0-3) and qualitative (textual) interpretation of
the indicator or attributed threat level. Second module (DATA ANALYSIS/AGGREGATION/INTEGRATION) is a tool for analyzing the
individual indicators, groups of indicators in particular security
dimensions or within them. The module shows intensity of the threat by
average standardized value for (set of) indicators or whole dimension (Z
data bases), threat levels, maximum threat levels and correlation matrices
(R data bases). At the joint level (multidimensional level), the module
shows average standardized values of indicators for all dimensions, average
threat levels in all dimensions, maximal threat levels in all dimensions and
correlation matrix among all dimensions. The third module (OUTPUT)
is a tool for graphical presentation of the threat situation by
showing one indicator, a set of indicators or integral values for all
indicators. This module helps in
acquiring a complex overview of the security situation in specific
dimensions, identifying interdimensional connections (interdimensional
analysis), extracting trends (trend analysis), identifying duplications and
inconsistencies in threat assessment among different national actors, etc.
In this
presentation, the operation of program INTEGRO, based on imaginary data
base, will be shown for the terrorist threat dimension. Also integral
results for all dimensions will be shown. The intention of presentation is
to show some of the latest results in developing integral and comprehensive
analytical methods in the field of threat assessment. Naturally, INTEGRO has
some limitations, which will be discussed as well.
I-4 Conflict
Decision Processes: With Illustrations from
Ireland
Prof.
Dr. Cathal Brugha, Management Information
Systems,
University
College
Dublin
,
Quinn
School
of Business,
Befield,
4, Dublin 4, Ireland, Cathal.Brugha@ucd.ie
http://mis.ucd.ie/CMSS
Tel.+353-1-716-4708
At
this session in previous EURO conferences Professor Ken Bowen discussed how
to help managers make decisions in practice by providing frameworks and maps
to elucidate issues and resolve situations.
He proposed an extension of ideas about Drama Theory, and
Confrontation and Collaboration Analysis, which both evolved out of Game
Theory.
This
presentation refers to the second of two papers about political decision
processes, based on Nomology, a decision science approach to structuring
qualitative decisions. The first,
see http://www.nosmo.nl/isj/ described a Development nomological process,
which follows a generic structure based on a Convincing process embedded
within a Committing process, which is implemented using an Adjusting process.
It applied this three-layer system to the situation of ongoing
dispute between a stronger and a weaker country to give a formal explanation
of eight conflict dilemmas. This
paper first looks at the broader context of how a society can be reduced to
having to deal with political disputes, despite being motivated towards
higher levels of its development.
It
then extends the first paper by considering the consequences of political
conflicts on personal behaviour, and how atrocities can lead to a conflict
spiral. It reveals three
additional dilemmas, and focuses on one, whether to rely on the more
aggressive (clockwise) Adjusting direction, or the more conciliatory (anticlockwise)
Adapting direction, which corresponds with Conflict Resolution.
It
explores Conflict Resolution, and shows that it brings the focus onto a
fourth layer of decision-making, which also follows an Adjusting process.
This leads to two different kinds of Adjusting and corresponding
names for the third layer “How I Adjust My World” and the fourth layer
“How I Adjust Myself”. Aspects
of adjusting oneself are Body, Mind, Soul and Spirit.
Corresponding feelings are Fear, Anxiety, Guilt and Resentment.
The paper then considers the
situation of ongoing political conflict where neither side is winning.
It shows that Conflict Resolution requires both sides to see it is a
win-win solution to move out of conflict.
This starts first with Adjusting Oneself and involves moving from
Conflict to Confrontation, to Cooperation, and finally to Collaboration.
It uses the Adjusting structure described in the first part, but in
reverse, as an Adapting process. To
succeed both sides must Adapt within themselves, and then mutually Adapt
together. Lessons from how
South Africa
applied this process to change their divided society into one living under
one constitution lead to suggestions about how the parties in
Northern Ireland
could make steps towards Conflict Resolution.
Keywords:
systems methodology, Nomology, decision science, philosophy
Session
II: Societal
complexity and Sustainable Development
Stream:
Methodology of Societal Complexity
Cor van
Dijkum,
Utrecht
University
, Faculty of Social
Sciences, Utrecht, Netherlands, c.vandijkum@fss.uu.nl
II-1 Two
Technical Multi-Criteria to Evaluate Projects of Social
Development
Dr.José G. Hernández R., ,
(1)Universidad
Metropolitana, Departamento de Gestión de
la Tecnología. Caracas
Venezuela.
Distribuidor universidad, autopista,
Guarenas, 78239, Caracas, 1074
Miranda,Venezuela
jhernandez@unimet.edu.ve
Dr.
María J. García G., Consultora.
Gerencia General. Apartado 78239.
Caracas
1074
Venezuela
. Mariminimagarcia@yahoo.com
The
contribution of this work is to demonstrate like two technical
multi-criteria, of the extreme simplicity, Matrix Of Weighing (MOW) and the
Multiattribute Models (MM) with multiplicative factors, can be used to
facilitate the decision making that must make the communities with respect
to the projects be executed in favour of them.
Although
when speaking of technical multi-criteria the one that most frequently is
mentioned in Literature it is Analytical Hierarchic Process (AHP), in this
work will not become use of it, because the AHP requires that all the
projects must to compare to construct the evaluation vector. In the case
analyzed here, the projects in general arise in isolated form, thus is
needed to valuation them of independent way, and Matrix Of Weighing, like
the Multiattribute Models with multiplicative factors they allow it, whereas
the AHP no.
The
objective of this work is centred in evaluating projects of social
development through the MOW and MM with multiplicative factors. This type of
projects arises very frequently in the developing countries, when the
communities more destitute, receives resource of the state or the
international organisms to undertake projects that improve their quality of
life. But the financial resources, by very abundant that are, always will be
few and it will never be possible simultaneously to undertake all the wished
projects, from which it is necessary to make a valuation of them to choose
as it is due to implement first.
Through
a hypothetical case one will be as the MOW and MM with multiplicative
factors take part to obtain an objective hierarchical structuring of the
projects that must be undertaken by a community.
In
order to construct to the hypothetical case to do one interviews to a small
group of people inhabitants of different “barrios” [district] from the
zone east of the capital, Caracas (in Venezuela “barrios” talks about to
centres populated by people of low economic resources). They mentioned that
the problems that affect their respective communities, in sequence of more
importance are: 1) Safety, 2) Potable water shortage, 3) Infrastructure (stairs),
4) Black waters, 5) Light (electrical service), 6) Transport, 7) Sweepings
and 8) Gas.
As
the two problems of greater relevance were the safety and the water the
proposed projects would be: A) To construct a police module in a central
point of the district from which all the sector can be covered without
greater efforts and B) to place or to construct a great water tank (minimum
200,000 litters), at the top of the district with the idea to serve as
reservoir for the moments of shortage in the sector.
As
far as the techniques multi-criteria that are going away to use it can say
that the MOW are a numerical adjustment of rows and columns, where the usual
thing is that in the first column the alternatives to be evaluated appear
and in the following columns the criteria, leaving the first row to identify
the respective criteria and the ranks of their weights and the remaining
squares of the matrix to make the valuation itself, the Pij, that would be
the weight that assigns alternative i according to criteria j, and the last
column is reserved to complete the evaluation of each alternative, adding
the accumulated points by the same one, in his respective row.
On
the other hand the models MM with multiplicative factors, respond to the
general expression:
Pts
= ∏k fgk * (∑i ∏h
fih * pci * (∑j pajci
* vajci))
(1)
Where,
in (1): subscript i represents the criteria and subscript j the attribute,
therefore pci will be the weight assigned to criteria i, pajci
will be the weight to attribute j of criteria i, vajci
will correspond to the value assigned to attribute j of criteria i, fih
will represent the correction factors that operate for criteria i, fgk,
the multiplicative factors general, where k enters the number of these
factors, that operate for all the model, and Pts will be the total value
reached about the project in study.
Known
as the techniques work multi-criterion to use and the case hypothetical the
pair of models was created, on the one hand a MOW, that through seven
criteria allowed the simple and fast evaluation of the two alternatives. On
the other hand MM with multiplicative factors, which worked with five
criteria, twelve (2 +2 +4 +2 +2) attributes altogether, a multiplicative
factor, Perpetually, for each one of the five multiplicative criteria and
two general factors Perpetually and Cost. Just as the MDP, the MM with
multiplicative factors, also of fast and simple form managed to choose which
the project was more indicated to be undertaken.
As
conclusion could be seen, that more important that the results of the
hypothetical example, were the construction of both models, that are very
simple and easy to construct and that they allow a clear selection between
social projects that they can be undertaken by a community, aspect this one
that do not allow other technical multi-criteria as they could be AHP.
Keywords:
Multi-criteria, Matrix Of Weighing, Multiattribute Models, Social problems,
Multiplicative factors.
II-2
Fuzzy-Based Models and Hierarchy Procedures as a Tool for Suburban Area
Classfication
Prof.
Dr. Ludmilla Koshlai, Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics
Department
of Mathematical Cybernetics
e-mail:
koshlai@ukr.net
Prof.
Dr. Mikhail Mikhalevich,
Ukrainian
Academy
of Foreign Trade,
Department
of Systems Analysis
e-mail: mmihalevich@ukr.net,
mmikhalevich@mail.ru
The
interaction of urbanization processes and inadequate development of
infrastructure in post-socialist countries has been generated a number of
interrelated economic, social, ecological and technical problems. Many of
them concentrate within the suburban area of large cities, when intensive
labour migrations, both legal and illegal, take place. In essence, these
problems are typical examples of complex societal problems and Compram
method could be applied for their solution. We consider the situation arisen
in suburbs of
Kiev
(the largest city of
Ukraine
and its capital) as typical for Compram. The establishment of legal
provision for the relations between city and regional authorities was
determined as a mental idea at the first sub-cycle of the mentioned method.
Geographical limits of suburban area were defined using fuzzy-based models;
the choice of alternatives for legislation development was made on the basis
of analytical hierarchy procedures. The further discussion demonstrated the
necessity of classification of suburban area into several sub areas with
different decision-making rules and interaction procedures for local,
regional and city authorities in each of them. Such classification also has
been made using methods of fuzzy set theory, ordinary regression and
hierarchy analysis. An important advantage of this approach is the
possibility to take into account imperfect, weakly structured information,
in particular the ordinal expert estimations.
The generalization of “gravitation” model was constructed for
these purposes. Its analysis demonstrated the existence of the following
suburban sub areas:
a) “compact” agglomeration, i.e. the populated areas located
around the large city at the distance between borders from
each other which is not more than
1 km
;
- area with strong gravity to the large city; the value of membership
function for the fuzzy set of areas with strong gravitation is greater than
0.9;
- area with moderated gravity to the large city; the value of the
mentioned membership function laying between 0.8 and 0.9;
-
periphery of suburban area; the value of
membership function changes between 0.6 and 0.8.
Proposals
for legislation development were elaborated using the hierarchy
decision-making model. The establishment of consultive-advisory body, which
would coordinate the activities of city, local and regional authorities,
related to the suburban area, and would take into account the interest of
local governing institutions of the suburban area is considered as the main
direction for legislation improvement. Functions of this body will be differ
for different parts of suburban areas. Practically all kinds of activity of
city, regional and local authorities must be coordinated for “compact”
agglomeration and such coordination is necessary only for strategic decision
concerning the periphery of suburban area.
Obtained
results are compared with conclusions received by alternative approaches. It
allows us to elaborate semantic and casual models for suburban area.
These results create the basis for next Compram sub-cycles; taxation,
ecological and emergency problems, infrastructure development will be their
subject. The approach suggested is universal enough. It could be applied
towards the research of interaction processes of a big city and a suburban
area for both transition and developed market economy countries.
Keywords:
urbanization, complex societal problems, Compram, fuzzy set theory,
hierarchy analysis.
II-3 From
Participatory Budgets To E-participatory
Budgets:
Models, Methods And Systems
Roman
Efremov a, Alexander Lotov b, David Ríos Insua a
a
Statistics and Decision Sciences Group, Rey Juan Carlos University, Tulipan
s/n, 28933, Madrid, Spain
Rey
Juan
Carlos
University
, c/ Tulipan,
s/n, Dpto II,
Desp 259, 28933,
Mostoles
,
Madrid
,
roman.efremov@urjc.es
,
b
Department of System Analysis, Lomonosov Moscow State University, GSP-2,
Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119992, Russian Federation
From
participatory budgets to e-participatory budgets: models, methods and
systems
Due
to the increasing demand for citizen participation in public decision
processes, Participatory Budgets (PB) are becoming increasingly popular all
over the world, see e.g. Ríos et al. (2005) for more information and
references. They are an attempt to allow citizen to have a word and aid in
deciding and approving how public budgets are spent. However, no formal
modelling or quantification of citizen preferences is usually undertaken and
no formal negotiation or group decision support tools are used, there being
little methodology available in this field and Information Technology are
scarcely used in them.
Information
Technology opens up many possibilities to support stakeholders. Indeed, many
authors have dwelt on how Internet is changing the way people interact with
governments. However, so far, most ideas relating Internet and politics,
have been directed towards facilitating traditional political methods
through IT, as with voting instead of voting with a piece of paper. The most
challenging goal is to actually transform public decision-making processes.
There
are already several examples of systems used or about to be used for public
decision support. From the analysis of such tools, a number of features that
we should demand from them can be formulated. First of all, as the system
will be used by the general public, we should not expect much sophistication
from users. Therefore, emphasis should be placed on user-friendliness in
interfaces. This does not entail, however, neglecting rigorousness of the
implemented methods.
Given
these prerequisites, we describe here a framework for participatory budget
elaboration support. The aim of our study is to develop user-friendly
procedures implementable on the web that can collect information about the
stakeholders’ preferences and help to transform this information into a
group decision in a fair and transparent manner. The procedure should be
simple enough for lay stakeholders who are not quantitatively sophisticated
decision makers.
The
two procedures we propose could be divided into two stages, once the problem
has been formulated. First, the stakeholders express their preferences in
some form. Then, the preference information is used to help stakeholders in
constructing the group decision.
A
successful framework for the second stage comes from bargaining theory,
introduced by Nash (1953). In particular, the balanced increment method (BIM),
a method based on the discrete version of Raiffa’s solution of balanced
increments, see Raiffa (2002), is used to offer interactively to
participants reasonable group solutions. Together with the general
architecture for PB support, it constitutes PARBUD - a system for PB
support, see Ríos (2005). We then discuss the experiment run with PARBUD,
which showed, on the whole, its appropriateness for PB support but also
difficulties in some preference modelling concepts used there.
The
model based on balanced increments arbitration and the probability
equivalent method for preference modelling is theoretically well defined but
may be too sophisticated for some users. Another approach was aimed at
solving this problem through goal identification and regret analysis, see
Efremov et al. (2006). It was shown that the model based on goal programming
may be used for preference modelling, the experiment has showed that this
approach can be implemented in an intelligible way for stakeholders.
Technically it permits constructing a surrogate value function that can be
used, particularly, in the BIM negotiation scheme.
We then discuss an experiment run with the preference modelling tool
based on this approach, see Efremov and Ríos-Insua (2006), that showed us
its suitability for preference modelling and the need of further experiments
currently on its way.
References:
Efremov
R., Ríos Insua D., Lotov
A.(2006) A framework for participatory group decision support over the web
based on Pareto frontier visualization, goal identification and arbitration:
Rey Juan Carlos University Technical Reports on Statistics and Decision
Sciences.
Efremov
R., Rios-Insua D. (2006) An experimental study of a web-based
framework for group decision support with applications to participatory
budget elaboration: Rey Juan Carlos University Technical Reports on
Statistics and Decision Sciences.
Ríos
J., Ríos-Insua D., Fernandez E., Rivero J. A.(2005) Participatory
Budget Formation Through the Web: Lecture Notes in Computer Science,
Springer, 268-276.
Nash J. F.
(1950). The bargaining problem. Econometrica
18: 155-162
Raiffa, H. (2002)
Negotiation Analysis,
Harvard
University
Press.
Session
III: Societal complexity and
Healthcare
Stream:
Methodology of Societal Complexity
Chair
session: Dr. Dorien J. DeTombe
International Research
Society on Methodology of Societal Complexity
Chair
Euro Working Group on Methodology of Societal Complexity
P.O. Box. 3286, 1001 AB Amsterdam,
The
Netherlands
,
Europe
Tel: +31 20 6927526
E-Mail:
DeTombe@nosmo.nl
http://www.geocities.com/doriendetombe
III-1 E-health
in the
Netherlands
Cor van
Dijkum,
Utrecht
University
, Faculty of Social
Sciences, -, Utrecht, Netherlands, c.vandijkum@fss.uu.nl
In
our modern society democratization, computer science and globalization
changes the structure and functioning of healthcare. In the
Netherlands
the base of healthcare was completed after the second world by the state
using law regulations. With a rising economy in the
seventies of 20th century the
luxury of democratization took it’s shape, also in the domain of
healthcare. From an object of treatment of professionals, patients became a
participant in the process of recovery. Patients and their relatives,
stimulated by the state, got involved in healthcare policy making.
Professionals at first were surprised and seem to get
out of power. However soon they retained
and by using technologies of computer science they strengthened their
instruments of administration and control. With
the state at the end of the 20th century leaving
healthcare to the free market, patients became thereupon weak actors in a
complex free market system that operated businesslike and was mostly
controlled by professionals and insurance companies. The globalization of
this system made it more complex for patients. In principle introducing more
possibilities and choices but in practice slippery because of lack of
adequate information and unknown financial interests of globalizing
professionals.
However like in other domains of society citizens began to organize
themselves as consumers of services. In a free market consumers of
healthcare could ask the best quality for the lowest price.
In the beginning of the 21th century unions of consumers
used public information (collected by state
inspectors of healthcare) and results of own survey research questioning
patients to articulate quality of somatic healthcare. It was published on
Internet what hospitals were the best, for
instance concerning mortality
and failure rates. Specialized groups of patients, for example focusing at
rheumatism, made their own website publishing facts, personal experiences
and opinions of patients. Also
for the mental healthcare a rich collection of patient oriented sites can be
found in the
Netherlands
.
Those
patient sites somewhat counter-balanced the sometimes the unilateral
information professionals gave on Internet. However for both actors
the free market introduced ambivalence
between competition
and cooperation. The
challenge both for professionals and patients in our modern hectic society
is to overcome this tricky
ambivalence and to realize a genuine partnership.
Internet
is a new medium to shape this partnership by giving balanced information for
(potential) clients of healthcare. When it is leaded by professionals by
giving relevant information of the side of patients. When it is made by
patients by using adequate information of professionals. In this way
information is given with which the demand of a (potential) client can be
matched with an adequate supply of a professional.
With
a case-study from mental healthcare it is illustrated how ‘a patient
site’ try to give this information. The site aims at (potential) clients
of mental healthcare that have a
problem, for example in the identification of the mental problem they have,
or concerning a search for a
matching professional, or what to do with a job that seems to cause the
problem. The site presents results of investigation of patient experiences
with such problems in the shape of a decision support system. Adequate
information from professionals is included, as
well as results of research of professionals about this problem. All
is viewed from the patient perspective.
Keywords: Complex
Societal Problems , Health Care, Internet, Decision
support, Patient’s perspective
III-2
Assessing Probable Risks in Hospital Medical
Record
Department
Mohammad H.
Yarmohammadian, Health Services
Administration,
Isfahan
University
of Medical Sciences, Hezar Jarib St. Azadi Square,, Medical Management
School,, 81745-164, Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran, Islamic Republic Of, mhyarm1381@yahoo.co.uk
Hospital CEOs
and Health Managers have great responsibility to assure safety and
maintenance of patients data,and legal usage and processing of data,as well
as defying and preventing probable risks that might be occurred in medical
records depts. This study aim to indentifying probable risks in Medical
records department with taking advantages of Risk assessment and management
techniques.
Alzahra
Great
Hospital
as one of largest special hospital in
Iran
has choosen as the field of study, and data gathered by RPN, and FMEA Model
used to assess, and reduce risks in Medical record depts.
III-3
Systems Approaches to Solving Practical Problems
Prof. Dr.
Slavica P. Petrovic, Faculty of Economics, University of Kragujevac,
D. Pucara 3,
34000,
Kragujevac
,
Serbia
,
Serbia
, pslavica@kg.ac.yu
According to
its interdisciplinary nature, systems thinking, through suitable theories,
methodologies and models, can significantly help to enhance dealing with
complexity. Applied systems thinking, represented by the systems
methodologies for structuring problem situations, is aimed at creative
intervening in the real world, i.e. solving practical management problems.
In comparison with the management .fads., high status ought to be granted to
applied systems thinking due to theoretical, methodological and practical
capacities of the systems approaches to solving complex problems.
III-4
Using Complex Adaptive Systems Theory to Examine the Internal Supply Chain
of a
U.S.
Hospital’s Peri-operative Services System
Dr.
Lawrence D. Frendendall
Department
of Management,
Clemson
University
,123 B. Sirrine Hall Clemson
,
SC
29634
, 864-656-2016 flawren@clemson.edu
Dr.
Janet B. Craig,
School
of
Nursing
,
Clemson
University
#530
Edwards Hall,
Clemson
,
SC
29634
, 864-422-8302 janetc@clemson.edu
In
2000 the National Academy of Sciences published the first of multiple
monographs that focus attention on errors in healthcare (IOM, 2000).
Healthcare in general, and acute care hospitals specifically are
under intense scrutiny and increasing environmental pressure to improve
patient safety and reliable outcomes while constraining costs to the payers
and maximizing their own margins. Within hospitals, the Perioperative
Service can be viewed as a scaled down model of challenges that face the
entire hospital e.g. increased demand from an aging population, advances in
costly medical technology, shrinking reimbursement, and logistically complex
operations (Friedman, et al., 2006). This
paper examines the perioperative service of a medium sized hospital (280
beds) using a prospective, hypothesis generating approach through the lens
of complex adaptive system theory to identify the sources and types of
complexity in the system. It then examines the barriers and opportunities
for application of lean principles to reduce complexity and increase the
reliability of the supply chain flow.
Many researchers report that the structures, incentives, and forces at work
in healthcare have produced highly variable patterns of care delivered by a
poorly coordinated system that results in excessive costs and risk.
Hospitals often fail to implement best practices and standards, and
do not achieve substantive improvements (Coyle, p.10).
However, sources of the failure to adopt proven practices on a
widespread basis is not well understood.
The
peri-operative unit of a hospital has three primary external customer groups:
1) surgeons who often influence where patients have surgery based on their
own preferences for performing operations; 2) patients who receive services
and may pay all or part of the charges based on third party pay benefit
plans; and 3) private insurers who competitively negotiate reimbursement
rates with the hospital. Internally in the hospital, surgical
inpatient nursing units receive and provide postoperative care for patients’
whose procedures are serious enough to qualify for inpatient status, while
the remaining patients are discharged and referred back for follow-up to
their surgeon.
Medical researchers argue that healthcare and perioperative services can
best be understood as complex adaptive systems (CAS), but there is little
empirical research supporting this assertion (Hoff et al., 2004).
Plsek (2003) used CAS to explain the diffusion of innovation in health care.
Tucker (2004) and Tucker and Spear (2006) support the notion that healthcare
organizations and their operational units, e.g. nursing and pharmacy, are
examples of CAS, but they do not provide a theoretical model of complexity
or make explicit the impact of flow within the internal supply chain.
Christian, Gustafson, Roth, et al. (2006) suggest that the operating
room is one of the most complex work environments in healthcare due to
patient variability, treatment protocols, technology, and the coordination
necessary to achieve reliable outcomes.
Others
have argued that the application of lean principles to healthcare will
increase reliability along with quality and safety. But, there are many
unanswered research questions about the application of lean management to
the service industry.
It
is possible that a systems view, which requires managers to view outcomes as
the result of an interconnected set of processes, as well as standardized
work practices will result in improvements (Hoff, 2004).
We
analyze the flow of information, materials, task, and roles in the
perioperative service, identify sources of random and artificial variation
that contribute to complexity, and propose strategies to reduce complexity.
Session
IV: : Prof. Dr Ken Bowen memorial session
Stream:
Methodology of Societal Complexity
Chair
session: Dr. Dorien J. DeTombe
International Research
Society on Methodology of Societal Complexity
Chair
Euro Working Group on Methodology of Societal Complexity
P.O. Box. 3286, 1001 AB Amsterdam,
The
Netherlands
,
Europe
Tel: +31 20 6927526
E-Mail:
DeTombe@nosmo.nl
http://www.geocities.com/doriendetombe
On
behalf of the Euro Operation Research Society , the Irish Operation Research
Society and the International
Research Society on Methodology of Societal Complexity we are very sad to
announce that Professor Dr Ken Bowen passed away last Friday the 16th
of March, 2007 at age 87. He died suddenly after working in his garden at his lovely home in
Guilford
,
England
.
Prof.
Dr Ken Bowen was a good and enthusiastic scientist who’s knowledge
exceeded the boundaries of his own field by large. He is an example for all
of us of the qualities of a real scientist: able to do good and thorough
resarch on his own and in cooperation with others; able to stimulate new
comers and youngsters in the field; open to new ideas, yet critical where
needed and positively supporting the good ideas of others. He was always
willing to reflect different points of view and was able to comunicate
carefully. Many beginning scientists benefited from his supportive comments,
broad knowledge and guidance. Bringing people together from quite different
fields was another one of his strengths. After participating in Operational
Research for so many years he became a well known and very respected
scientist in the field, he was aquainted with many people, had a good
overview of the current state of the subject and became a good friend of
many of us. Prof. Dr Ken Bowen worked until the last day of his long life on
his science.
After
a long career dedicated to the Royal Navy of Great Britain, which provided
him with extensive experience and the opportunity to see the world, he
completed his doctoral dissertation and dedicated the last 25 years to
science, emphasizing that complex societal problems can best be handled in
scientific and practical ways, as opposed to waging wars. In this regard,
one of his last publications is very interesting to read. See: Volume
8 Global Safety and Terrorism
http://www.geocities.com/doriendetombe/detombeMMvolmue8terrorism.html
Prof.
Dr Ken Bowen was an active and an enthusiast member of the Euro working
group on Societal Complexity. We are happy to have
had the opportunity to work closely together with him and are grateful to
have had his continued support for our work through enthusiastic discussions.
We are sure that we speak for many when we say that we will miss Ken, as a
scientist, but most of all as a human being, a good friend, a good companion.
We know that being able to participate in scientific inquiry to the end of
his life, and being able to go to conferences, as well as supporting
youngsters gave Ken a lot of pleasure. Ken and his lovely wife Barbra were
also very hospitable and invited many of us to their wonderful home at the
top of the hill in
Guilford
, were we enjoyed many discussions on science, gardening, raising children,
politics, ceremonies and poetry while listening to lovely music. He also
enjoyed accompanying us on visits to the local museum.
Ken
Bowen was a great man, a great personality, and an independent thinker. We
want to extend our sincere condolences to his lovely wife Barbara, their
children and grandchildren who have lost a great husband, father and
grandfather.
Dear
Ken, thank you for the change to know you. We will miss you and Barbara at
our future conferences. We will not forget you and will stay in contact with
Barbara.