Complexity as a Challenge
Book of Abstracts, Volume 11
IFORS 2002 Edinburg July 2002
Dorien J. DeTombe (Ed.)
Chair Euro Working Group
Complex Societal Problems
Operational Research Societies
The abstracts are reviewed by members of the Operational Research Euro Working Group Complex Societal Problems *
· Dr. Cor van Dijkum, Utrecht University, The Netherlands
· Dr. Dorien J. DeTombe, Chair EW Complex Societal Problems, The Netherlands
· Prof. Dr. Franz Liebl, University of Witten/Herdecke, Germany
· Drs. Frans Birrer, Leiden University, The Netherlands
· Dr. Bert Enserink, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands
· Prof. dr. Jean-Pierre Brans, Free University Brussels, Belgium
· Drs. Erik Pruyt, Free University Brussels, Belgium
· Dr. Johan Springael, Free University Brussels, Belgium
Board of the Euro Working Group Complex Societal Problems
· Dr. Dorien J. DeTombe (chair), Greenhill & Waterfront, Intern. Research & Development Institute Complex Societal Problems, The Netherlands
· Prof. Dr. Tineke Bahlmann, University of Utrecht, The Netherlands
· Prof. Dr. Ken Bowen, University of London, United Kingdom
· Dr. Cor van Dijkum, Utrecht University, The Netherlands
· Prof. Dr. Dick Duke, Michigan University, USA
· Prof. Dr. Franz Liebl, University Witten/Herdecke, Germany
· Mr. dr. Antoinette Muntjewerff, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands
· Prof. Dr. Marjan Vezjak, University of Ljubljana, Slovenian
Corresponding address:
Dr. Dorien J. DeTombe, Chair Euro Working Group Complex Societal Problems
Email: DeTombe@lri.jur.uva.nl; www.geocities.com/doriendetombe
P.O. Box. 3286, 1001 AB Amsterdam, The Netherlands, Europe
Tel: +31 20 6927526
See for more information: www.geocities.com/doriendetombe
All books can be ordered by
Greenhill & Waterfront
International Scientific Research & Development
Institute Complex Societal Problems
P.O. Box 3286, 1001 AB Amsterdam, The Netherlands, Europe
Entrepotdok 133, 1018 AD Amsterdam, The Netherlands, Europe
E-Mail: Greenhillwaterfront@hotmail.com
www.geocities.com/greenhillwaterfront
CIP-DATA KONINKLIJKE BIBLIOTHEEK, DEN HAAG
DeTombe, Dorien
Complexity as a Challenge,
Book of Abstracts, IFORS 2002 , Edinburgh, UK, Volume 11
/ Dorien DeTombe,
- Amsterdam : Greenhill & Waterfront, Europe: Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Guilford, UK , America: Montreal, Canada
Greenhill & Waterfront
International Scientific Research & Development Institute Complex Societal Problems
P.O. Box 3286, 1001 AB Amsterdam, The Netherlands, Europe
E-Mail: Greenhillwaterfront@hotmail.com
http://www.geocities.com/greenhillwaterfront
Tel. +31 (0) 20 6927526
ISBN 90-77171-03-7
NUGI 661, 652, 659, 852
Subject headings: problem handling / complex societal problems / science/ methodology.
ã 2002 Greenhill & Waterfront, Amsterdam, March, 2002
Ó Dorien J. DeTombe, All rights reserved, March 2002
pages: 21
Euro Working Group Complex Societal Problems
Handling complex societal problems needs a special approach. Handling societal problems in an interdisciplinary way has become a must for our society and a challenge for the human sciences. The problems society is confronted with are difficult to handle. There is a growing gap between the complexity of these problems and the human capacity to deal with them. There is a need for better methods and tools, more knowledge and imagination. Scientific knowledge is needed to survive amidst these problems.
Therefore methodology for complex societal problems has become a new field of scientific attention. Some of the scientific reasons for this special approach are that the problems are seldom defined, change during their development, many actors are involved often with a different view on the problem, with different interest and with different ‘solutions’ in mind. Societal reasons for this special approach is the importance of these problems for society, the impact they have on many people, and the large amount of money involved. Combining the effort of scientists who are working in this field is an inspiring serious challenge from the perspective of a number of disciplines. Combining existing knowledge and creating new insights with methods and tools for supporting complex societal problems is a challenge for scientists from different fields.
The goal of the Euro Group on Complex Societal Problems is to increase and to combine the available scientifical knowledge regarding the handling of complex societal problems. Means to reach this goal are organizing workshops and conferences, publishing proceedings and books in which the discussion on this subject can take place.
The year 2000
The interest for the Euro Working Group on Complex Societal Problems is still growing. In July 2000 on the EURO XVII conference in Budapest Hungary the Euro Working Group organized nine sessions and a workshop. This means that during the whole conference there was a continuous discussion of the subject of Complex Societal Problems. The papers and the discussions were very inspiring. The presenters of the papers were selected based on the abstract reviewed by the board of the Euro Working Group . The Euro Working Group is very glad that it was able to invite such a large group of high qualified researchers from all over the world to present their research. The abstracts of the papers were published in the way of the tradition of the Euro Working Group in a special booklet (DeTombe, 2000a). The Chair of the Euro Working Group was invited to present a semi plenary lecture on the Euro XVII conference. Many people attended the presentation.
In cooperation with the Euro Working Group organized the International Society on Complex Societal Problems in October 2000 the second international meeting of researchers on the subject of Complex Societal Problems. This session was organized on the 5th International Conference on Social Science Methodology in Koln, Germany. There the International Society on Complex Societal Problems organized several sessions in which twelve researchers presented their papers (DeTombe, 2000b).
The Euro Working Group works closely together with the Dutch Nosmo Research Group on Complex Societal Problems in the Netherlands and with the International Society on Complex Societal Problems. The Dutch Nosmo research group on Complex Societal Problems organized in the year 2000 four meetings with paper presentations and discussions.
The West Euro Group on Complex Societal Problems
In order to intensify the discussion and the scientific exchange the Dutch Nosmo group on Complex Societal Problems started in October 2000 a cooperation with the Belgium and German scientists in this field. Prof. Dr. Jean-Pierre Brans and his group of researchers of the Free University of Brussels, Belgium and Prof. Dr Franz Liebl of the Witten/Herdecke University, Prof. Dr. Heiner Müller-Merbach of the University of Kaiserslautern and Dr. Elmar Stuhler of Munich Technical University in Germany and some of their colleagues joined the Dutch Nosmo Group of Dr. DeTombe in an Euro Subgroup named the West Euro Working Group on Complex Societal Problems. The West-Euro Working Group met twice in Amsterdam (SISWO) in 2000 to discuss their mutual research plans. It promised to be a very vivid and fruitful research group. In 2001 four meetings of the West Euro group are planned, two in Amsterdam (SISWO), one in Maastricht (ICIS) and one in Brussels (VU).
The number of members of the Euro Working Group is steadily growing. The members of the Euro Working Group come from different fields and are work at universities all over the world. There is a high degree of activity and interaction amongst the members of the group. By the reaction of the audience there is a feeling that this relatively new subject of the Operational Research field is winning more and more interest. There is also a growing interest from the side of policy makers who recognize that the problems they are confronted with are complex problems, which are not easy to solve, and which need an complex integral approach. The growing interest is needed, because the problems society is confronted with should be efficient and sustainable handled. Complex societal problems like in Europe the recent troubles in the agro-industry as the Mad-Cow disease and the Mouth and Foot disease, and the continue problems with in the area of transportation. The worldwide problems in the area of healthcare like malaria and AIDS, and the water problems (too less, too much and not clean).
The year 2001
In the year 2001 the Euro Working Group on Complex Societal Problems organized six international meetings. Four meetings were organized together with the Dutch NOSMO research group on Complex Societal Problems and the West-Euro group on Complex Societal Problems. These meetings took place in Amsterdam (twice) Maastricht and Brussels. At the meetings research was discussed by presenting papers, and research cooperation was discussed, which resulted in an international and methodological comparison on the subject of ‘The Complexity of Large Cities’. In the summer two international conferences were co-organized by the Euro Working Group on Complex Societal Problems.
One international conference, organized together with the Dutch NOSMO research group on Complex Societal Problems and the Dutch NOSMO research group on Simulation was dedicated to the role of simulation models in handling Complex Societal Problems at the EUROSIM2001, which took place in June 2001 in Delft University of Technology, Delft The Netherlands (two tracks, 5 sessions).
The other international conference in the summer took place in Rotterdam on the EURO 2001 in The Netherlands (six tracks, 18 sessions). Of each conference a special booklet was published with the abstracts of the paper presenters (see below).
Special sessions and conferences organized by the Euro Working Group on Complex Societal Problems:
· ISAGA conference Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA, July 1994
· The First International Conference on Methods and Tools for Handling Complex Societal Problems, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands, November 1994
· EURO XIV, 14th European Conference on Operational Research, 1995- 20thAnniversary of Euro, Jerusalem, Israel, July 1995
· Second International Conference on Methods and Tools for Handling Complex Societal Problems, Munich University of Technology, Germany, organized in conjunction with WACRA-Europe Society on Case Method Research, June 1996
· IFORS ’96 conference, Vancouver, Canada, July 1996
· ISAGA conference University of Tilburg, The Netherlands, July 1997
· EURO/INFORMS conference Barcelona, Spain, July 1997
· WACRA- Europe conference, Madrid, Spain, September 1997
· EURO XVI Operational Research. Brussels, Euro Working Group Handling Societal Problems, July 1998
· 14th International Sociology Conference, Montreal, Canada, July 1998
· Simulation in Industry Conference, Nottingham, UK, October 1998.
· E U R O XVII, E U R O 2000, 17th European Conference on Operational Research Budapest, Hungary, July 16-19, 2000
· 5th International Conference on Social Science Methodology. RC33 , Cologne, Germany, October 2000
· EUROSIM2001, Shaping Future With Simulation, 4th International EUROSIM, Delft, , The Netherlands, June 2001
· E U R O XVIII, E U R O 2001, 18th European Conference on Operational Research Rotterdam, The Netherlands, July 2001
· IFORS 2002: Edinburgh, UK, www.ifors2002.org
Published on the topic of Complex Societal Problems
Books
· DeTombe, D.J. (1994) Defining complex interdisciplinary societal problems. A theoretical study for constructing a co-operative problem handling method: the method COMPRAM. Amsterdam: Thesis publishers Amsterdam (thesis), 439 pp. ISBN: 90-5170-302-3
· DeTombe, Dorien J. & Cor van Dijkum (Eds.) (1996) Analyzing Societal Problems. A Methodological Approach. Mering: Rainer Hampp Verlag, 300 pp. ISBN: 3-87988-189-8
· Stuhler, E. & D.J. DeTombe (Eds.) (1999) Volume 5, Cognitive Psychological Issues and Environment Policy Application, Research on Cases and Theories. Munchen/Mering: Hampp Verlag, ISBN: 3-87988-355-6
· DeTombe, D.J. & Stuhler, E. (Eds.) (1999) Volume 6, Complex Problem Solving; Methodological Support for Societal Policy Making, Research on Cases and Theories. Munchen/Mering: Hampp Verlag, ISBN:3-87988-356-4
· Dijkum van, Cor, Dorien DeTombe, & Etzel van Kuijck (Eds.) (1999) Validation of simulation models. Amsterdam: Siswo, ISBN: 90-676-152-2
· DeTombe, Dorien J. (Guest Editor) (2001) Handling Complex Societal Problems, European Journal of Operation Research; Vol. 128-2, pp.227-458, 16 January 2001, Elsevier, North-Holland, Amsterdam
Books of abstracts
· Van Dijkum, C. & D.J. DeTombe (Eds.) (1994) The First International Conference on Complex Societal Problems. Technical University Delft / Utrecht University
· Stuhler E. & D.J. DeTombe (Eds.) (1996) Complex Problems & Climat Change. Munich: Munich University of Technology
· DeTombe, D.J. (Ed.) (1996) Ifors ‘96, The International Federation of Operational Research Societies, July 1996 Vancouver, Canada. Special Session Methods and Tools for Analyzing Complex Societal Policy Problems. Delft: Delft University of Technology
· DeTombe, D.J. 1997 (Ed.) Methodology for Analyzing Societal Problems. Euro XV & Informs XXXIV, Barcelona, July 1997. Delft: Delft University of Technology, 20 pp.
· DeTombe, D.J. 1998 (Ed.) Methodology for Analyzing Societal Problems. Euro XVI Brussels. Delft: Delft University of Technology, 20 pp.
· DeTombe, Dorien J. & C. van Dijkum (1998) (Eds.) Sociocybernetics - Methodology for complex societal problem and sociocybernetic concepts 14th International Sociology Conference in Special Session Using Sociocybernetics Concepts for Analyzing Complex Societal Problems Montreal, Canada, Delft: Delft University of Technology
· DeTombe, Dorien J. (1999) IFORS’99. Methodology For Analyzing Complex Societal Problems, Euro Working Group , Operational Research Societies, Book of Abstracts, Volume 6. Pp.18. Delft: Delft University of Technology. ISBN90-5638-039-7
· DeTombe, Dorien J. (2000) (Ed.) E U R O XVII, E U R O 2000 Methodology for Handling Complex Societal Problems. Book of Abstracts, Volume 7. Euro Working Group . Pp.31, Delft: Delft University of Technology. ISBN 90-5638-0524
· DeTombe, Dorien J. (2000) (Ed.) 5th International Conference on Social Science Methodology. RC33 Methodology for Handling Complex Societal Problems. Book of Abstracts, Volume 8. Pp.18. Delft: Delft University of Technology. ISBN 90-5638-0516
· DeTombe, Dorien J. (2001) (Ed.). Complexity as a Challenge Book of Abstracts, Volume 9. EURO 2001. Pp.38. Delft: Delft University of Technology. ISBN 90-5638-080-X
· DeTombe, Dorien J. (2001) (Ed.) Handling Complex Societal Problems. Book of Abstracts, EUROSIM2001, Volume 10. Pp.18. Delft: Delft University of Technology. ISBN 90-5638-081-8
Complexity as a challenge
Complex Societal Problems
Euro Working Group Operational Research Societies
Coordination stream Dorien J. DeTombe, Ph.D
Chair Operational Research Euro Working Group Complex Societal Problems
http://ww.geocities.com/doriendetombe/index.html
Introduction to the field of Complex Societal Problems
Dr. Dorien J. DeTombe
Chair Operational Research Euro Working Group Complex Societal Problems
http://ww.geocities.com/doriendetombe/index.html
Complex societal problems like in Europe the recent difficulties in the Agro-industry as the Mad-Cow disease and the Foot- and Mouth disease, and the continue problems with in the area of transportation. Two kinds of knowledge are needed for handling complex societal problems: content knowledge, and problem handling knowledge. Content knowledge, means knowledge on the subject of the problem. Complex societal problems are interdisciplinary therefore the knowledge for handling complex societal problems comes from a variety of scientific disciplines. The content knowledge comes from content experts, which have studied this discipline or are familiar with the field out of experience.
The process knowledge comes from facilitators. These are scientists or practitioners working in this field of complex societal problems using methods derived from their original field combined with methods specially created for the field of handling societal problems. Handling societal problems include knowledge, power and emotion.
There is a growing interest in the field of complex societal problems from an interdisciplinary group of researchers all over the world focussing on methods and tools for handling complex societal problems.
Analysis of taxonomies in OR
Dr. Cathal M. Brugha(1) & Prof. dr. Ken Bowen (2)
1 President,Management Science Society of Ireland
http://www.imsgrp.com/mssi/
General Editor,International Transactions in Operational Research
http://www.blackwellpublishers.co.uk/asp/journal.asp?ref=0969-6016&src=edt Tel.+353-1-716-8132 (& Voicemail) Fax.+353-1-716-1120
Department of Management Information Systems
Michael Smurfit Graduate School of Business
University College Dublin Blackrock, County Dublin, Ireland
2. Department of Mathematics,
Royal Holloway, University of London,
Egham Hill, Egham, Surrey TW20 0EX, England.
This paper considers several taxonomies, including types of operational researchers, and types of game playing. It compares them with some underlying management strategy and with some traditional systems used in China. It explores their common features. One is that they all can be related to three sets of dichotomies. Another is that some relate to processes, and others describe archetypes. This latter difference occurs both in the Western and the Chinese taxonomies. It explores the importance of this distinction for understanding the way these taxonomies were formed.
Prioritising innovative research areas in a group decision conferencing process
Dr. Diederick Wijnmalen
TNO, OR&BM Division, P.O. Box 96864
The Hague, The Netherlands
E-mail: wijnmalen@fel.tno.nl
Telephone: (+) 31 70 374 0192, Fax: (+) 31 70 374 0642
This presentation reports on a consulting process aimed at making a group of high-ranked officials decide on investment priorities regarding a broad range of innovative research areas. Not only the research areas were competing, the officials themselves also represented different parts of a very large Dutch government organisation. In a series of decision conferences and preparatory elicitation steps in-between, a prioritisation methodology was first accepted and then carried out based on expert knowledge and multi-criteria analysis. This presentation will focus on the process, the methodology and the type of information used, not on results.
Modelling For Surprise: .Alternative Approaches To Scenario-Building
Prof. dr. Franz Liebl
Chair for Strategic Marketing, Universitaet Witten/Herdecke
Witten, Germany
FranzL@uni-wh.de
The scenario technique is the method of choice for corporate and political decisionmakers in order to cope with an uncertain societal environment and its issues and conflicts. In general, it is the societal and cultural trends that are regarded as the driving forces of future scenarios. However, a closer look at trends reveals some strange behavior. Our analysis of approximately 100 important societal and cultural trends shows that they are tantamount to paradox developments and dialectic relationships between a trend and its own counter-trend. Trends represent new configurations which are sensitive to contexts and encompass contradictory elements. Put differently, they show a simultaneity of the unequal.
This has an important bearing on the way scenarios are formulated, because the simple variation of scenario descriptors cannot model the complexity of such developments properly. In this paper we propose four approaches of scenario-building that reflect this kind of complexity in different respects and may be regarded as ways of modelling potentially surprising situations:
Recombinant scenarios. If trends are conceptualized as a form of increased complexity, a trend which represents a configuration of elements is in itself a ”micro-scenario.” Thus, scenarios can be built by combining several of these (paradoxical) trends.
Narrow scenarios. This approach can be regarded as an alternative to global scenarios which run the danger of distracting the attention of decisionmakers away from specific drivers to very generic factors that hardly lead to surprises. In a restricted area the full set of paradoxes and complexities can be developed more easily and powerfully.
Context scenarios. If we accept the context-sensitivity of trends, then scenario building can aim at reversing its own logic: No longer the question ”what—if” is at the heart of alternative futures but the question ”what (must happen)—so that”. Identifying the best/worst possible contexts for a trend becomes the result of analysis rather than the input.
Inconsistent scenarios. Mostly, surprising scenarios had originally been regarded as impossible and inconsistent. Instead of excluding these apparently impossible combinations we could explicitly look for the most inconsistent combinations and most paradoxical trends as the core of a scenario.
In this paper each of the four approaches will be discussed and the possibilities for combining them are shown.
Handling the complexity of large cities
Dr. Dorien J. DeTombe
Complex Societal Problems
http://ww.geocities.com/doriendetombe/index.html
Keywords: complex societal problems, methodology, large cities
Many modern large cities in the industrial world have problems that are in essence alike. Large cities such as Amsterdam, Brussels, Zurich and Paris are all confronted with similar problems that decline the quality of life in the cities for the inhabitants. These problems are the cause of many worries of municipality as well as for the central government. These troubles can make people to move to other cities, businesses to settle their firm elsewhere and tourists to go to other destinations.
The problems large cities are confronted are problems in the fields of urban planning, transportation, economics, healthcare, law and order, education and ecology. These problems we refer to as integrated interdisciplinary complex societal problems.
The problems are due to a series of causes, for instance, industrial waste disposal; environmental problems and healthcare problems, different educational and cultural backgrounds of allochtonous and autochthonous, criminal behavior, and by new situations to which former answers are not longer a solution.
Most answers that are given are short term, disciplinary, isolated answers. Shifting a local problem, such as that of homeless people (drugs addicts) from one area of the city to another is an not a solution to the problem. Skipping a train station with a high amount of robbery is an answer but not a solution to the problem.
These interdisciplinary and integrated problems need a basic approach. Although policy makers recognize the need for basic answers that handle causes of the problem instead of only the effects, short term answers are very popular with policy makers because of their
need for direct answers ‘pressed’ by the public, the media or their own career. Policy makers are often not willing to handling the deeper causes. Sometimes because they take effects for causes or they are not able to handle the causes in a long-term view. Basic solutions to complex societal problems often need a long-term integrated and interdisciplinary approach, which takes much effort of all the people involved.
A way to handle these complex societal problems in large cities is to use the COMPRAM method. The COMPRAM method combines a fast short-term approach with a basic long-term approach. The first action is to find out which problems are very urgent and need handling right away, which problems are urgent and which are not so urgent. This is done in the Quick Start Workshop, where the problem owner with the main actors and the main content experts guided by a facilitator discuss the problem with each other in a face to face meeting in an electronic meeting room (GDSS). This is step zero of the COMPRAM method. Here an inventory of the problems is made. The five most urgent problems are selected and a start for an intervention plan is made. With these five problems the municipality can start working right away.
Then the Basic Approach can start. This can be done according to step 1 to 6 of the COMPRAM method, where content experts first analyze the problem in making an integrated and interdisciplinary (simulation) model of the problem. Then the actors discuss the problem in their own group. Then mutual accepted interventions are found based on scenarios by the experts and actors together. Then the interventions are discussed with the public before implementing. Then the interventions are performed and evaluated. This Basic Approach is more thorough and takes more time, however, this is the only way to really find out what the causes of a complex societal problem are and to find out how to handle the real causes.
Structuring Complex Multi-Actor Situations: Visualizing Interdependance, Influence and Cooperation
Dr. B. Enserink
School of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, P.O.Box 5015, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands Phone + 31 1527 88071,Fax: + 31 1527 82464 E-mail: b.enserink@tbm.tudelft.nl http://www.tbm.tudelft.nl/webstaf/enserink/index.htm
Keywords 1 Complex problems 2. Actor Analysis 3. Network Analysis 4. Inferred mapping
Managing the interface between the competing demands of different stakeholders, individuals, groups, departments and organizations, is a main challenge for process managers. Information on stakeholder values, objectives, means and varying problem perceptions must be obtained and structured to provide strategic information to the process manager. In this paper a case study is presented of an interactive network analysis made for strategic policy making for diffused pollution in a Dutch province. The information was generated by the use of a Group Decision Support System (GDSS) and mapped according to participants appraisals and scores on influence and cooperation.
Helping Small IT Companies In Identifying What Drives Web Development
Prof. dr. D. Petkov (1), dr. O. Petkova (2) and dr. G. Fry (3)
1.PetkovD@easternct.edu
2 Central Connecticut State University; petkovao@ccsu.edu
3 University of Natal/Montclair State University; fry@nu.ac.za
The Critical Success Factor theory has been applied to regional small IT companies’ web software development in a new way, transforming it from a tool for consultants into an easily accessible guiding source for self-help community operations research through web technology, reflecting cultural and industry specific locally relevant issues.
Knowledge Management In the Small and Medium Enterprises
Dr. LeePeng, Tan
University of Malaya , Associate Professor
Faculty of Business and Accountancy, University of Malaya,
City: Kuala Lumpur , 50603, Malaysia
E-mail: g5tanlp@umcsd.um.edu.my
Telephone: +603 7967 3822/7967 3974
Fax: +603 7967 3980
This paper focuses on knowledge management in small and medium enterprises in a newly developed country, namely Malaysia. Special attention will be focused on developing a conceptual model for knowledge management in a developing country as a modification to Beijerse’s conceptual model.
Social Interventions seen from a practical perspective
dr. Lene Sørensen (1) dr. Anne Broen (2) & Victor Vidal (3)
1 Associate Professor, Technical University of Denmark
Building 371, DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
Phone: + 45 4525 5170 Fax: + 45 4596 3171
E-mail: lene@cti.dtu.dk
2 & 3 Anne Broen Christensen and Victor Vidal, Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Technical University of Denmark
Creating a successful intervention is a challenging task. We discuss the intervention process in small organization complex problem situations. A case study is presented, which identifies various discussion points but emphasizes the role of the facilitator.
Formalizing political theories: a dynamical systems approach.
J. Springael (1), C. Macharis (2) & G. Geeraerts (3)
1 jspringa@ruca.ua.ac.be
Faculty of Applied Economics – University of Antwerp
2 Center for Strategic Management – Vrije Universiteit Brussel
3 Department of Politics – Vrije Universiteit Brussel
A mathematical model describing the behavior of and the interactions between three political actors is set up using dynamical systems. Each actor is represented by means of its relative power, whereas the type of
interaction is depending on the ‘status quo’ or ‘revisionistic’ character of the different countries. The model is solved numerically through simulation.
The results of the simulations allow a better understanding of international political relations as well as the analysis of the underlying assumptions of several political theories.
Research methodology and Ontological Notions of Complex Societal Problems
Dr Olev Ivanov
St. Petersburg State University
Faculty of Sociology
Three ontological notions of complex societal problems: objective, subjective, and objective-subjective can be outlined. Research methodology depends upon the acceptance of definite notion. I would argue that the complex societal problems include both objective and subjective components; it also involves interaction between them. That is why we have to use both objective and subjective methods. The idea of triangulation derives from the necessity of using both objective and subjective methods of research. As the basis of triangulation a single onthological notions of complex social problem should be used. That notion can be developed by interdisciplinary research team, the problem owner and normal citizens. The single initial notion of subject study and subject of social action – the most important principle of complex approach as a relatively new methodological conception of modern science and modern social practice. The complex approach is on the stage of development in current research. In practice we can find only some elements of this approach.
The author deals with the underlying principles of complex approach. The principles are the following:
· Complex, undiscrepant knowledge versus diversified, uncoordinated knowledge,
· Interdisciplinarity,
· single approach to the cognitive process, to methodological organization of research (ensured by the common initial notions of an object; common idea of a research; system organization of the subject of research, which is a mental interdisciplinary construction of the analyzed object and common research program);
· mobilization of the pertinent knowledge concerning the object of investigation;
· basic science;
· supplamentarity;
· subordination and coordination of the research methods, qualitative and quantitative;
· methodological control of ideas and results compatibility.
All these principles concern the cognitive process. They set the requirements for a methodological and social organization of the collective scientific research.
The author discusses the problem of methodological and social organization of complex research.
Workshop
Complex Societal problems: Theory & Practice
Dr. Dorien DeTombe
Traditional the content of the sessions of the conference on the topic of complex societal problems are discussed with all the participants of the conference stream of complex societal problems. Which new things are developed in the field. What did we learn. Which progress is made on theory, and in practice. What are the interesting current questions in the field? How will we continue in the future? Which new urgent complex societal problem can be signaled. The questions will reflect theory and every day life practice.
All people interested in this subject are invited to join the workshop.
Tutorial
How to handle complex societal problems more efficient and more transparent
Dorien J. DeTombe, Ph.D.
Chair Operational Research Euro Working Group
Complex Societal Problems
http://ww.geocities.com/doriendetombe/index.html
The Tutorial is meant for policy makers, consultants and scientists.
The Tutorial consists of two parts: a theoretical part in the morning and an applied workshop in the afternoon.
Theory:
In the theoretical part the main ideas of the theory for handling complex societal problems will be explained with an introduction to the method COMPRAM (Complex Problem Handling Method; DeTombe, 1994; DeTombe, 2001). What are complex societal problems. What have the different complex societal problems all in common. The role of chaos theory, socio-cybernetics, system-dynamics and cognitive psychology in the theory of complex societal problems. What is the reason these problems need an interdisciplinary approach. Why should these kinds of problems be handled in co-operation. How far and in what way can these problems be predicted. In what way can these problems be guided. What are the basic approaches for complex societal problems. What is the role of knowledge, power and emotion in handling complex societal problems. Which kinds of parties are involved. What are the different interest and knowledge of the different parties. How can these parties cooperate with each other. How to develop a vision on the problem. What is the role of scenarios. How to structure, guide and evaluate the interventions
Workshop:
An interactive role-play Game based on the COMPRAM method.
The applied workshop will explore how a real life complex societal problem can be handled. Here step by step the phases of the problem handling process of the complexity of large cities will be walked through. In an interactive role-play Game based on the COMPRAM method each participant of the workshop has an active part in the problem handling process, some as a content expert, some as an actor (a party). All participants will have like, in real life, different knowledge, different interests, and different emotions towards the problem. All participants will have different cultural backgrounds. Based on the seven-layer communication model of DeTombe (1994) the participants of the workshop will communicate with each other guided by a facilitator. For information retrieval the Internet will be used.
Complex societal problems are problems like the effects of climate change, that results in floods, avalanches and biological changes; environmental problems due to the world wide industrial waste disposals; large healthcare threads due to BSE, malaria and AIDS, and the vulnerability of a society of computers, internet and stock exchange. Although all these problems differ much, the way they can be analyzed and handled is the same. Complex societal problems are, due to the complexity, the many feedback loops and the different interests of the actors, hard to handle and even more difficult to guide. Handling these problems needs a multi actor and a multi-disciplinary approach. The COMPRAM method is a framework method that guides the problem handling process step by step, starting by selecting the most urgent problems, step zero of the COMPRAM method. Then in several rounds experts and actors discuss their view on the problem and try to come to an agreement for interventions. These are step one to six of the COMPRAM method. The facilitator carefully guides this process. The facilitator guides the interaction among the experts and actors by modeling the problem. For this modeling process the COMPRAM method uses a seven-layer tool. (DeTombe, 1994).
The COMPRAM method can be used to handle all kinds of complex societal problems. In the last ten years elements of the COMPRAM method are used to handle complex societal problems of the government, and of large (international) organizational problems. Examples are ‘Who is in charge of the North Sea’, ‘What are the future problems in the area of transportation’, ‘How can the local government work more fruitfully together’, ‘How can we as a national electricity organization start an international business?’ and ‘How to prevent risks during large international sport events’. See for information about Complex Societal Problems and the COMPRAM method the website of DeTombe (above).
Dorien DeTombe has ten years theoretical and applied experience is handling complex societal problems. She has supported more then 50 real life cases for the government as well for large international organizations. She is chair of the Euro Working Group on Complex Societal Problems of Operational Research Society. See for more information the website of DeTombe; http://ww.geocities.com/doriendetombe/index.html
Keywords: complex societal problems, methodology, large cities
Corresp. address:
Chair Operational Research Euro Working Group Complex Societal Problems
P.O. Box. 3286, 1001 AB Amsterdam, The Netherlands, Europe
Tel: +31 20 6927526
E-Mail: DeTombe@lri.jur.uva.nl
http://www.geocities.com/doriendetombe
home
Ó Dorien J. DeTombe, All rights reserved, update September 2003