Methodology of Societal Complexity
Global
Safety & Sustainable Development & Healthcare
7th International Conference on Social
Science Methodology
Campus di Monte Sant’Angelo
Naples, Italy, Europe
RC33 September 1-5, 2008
Dorien DeTombe & Rosanna Memoli
Volume 17
Methodology of Societal Complexity: Global Safety &
Sustainable Development & Healthcare
7th International Conference on Social Science
Methodology
Campus di Monte Sant’Angelo Naples, Italy, Europe
RC33 September
1-5, 2008
Volume
17
Dorien
DeTombe & Rosanna Memoli
ã
Greenhill & Waterfront, Dorien J. DeTombe
Publisher:
Greenhill & Waterfront,
Europe:
North-America:
greenhillwaterfront@hotmail.com
ISBN/EAN
9789077171271
Version
001
pages
10
March
2008
Nur
916
Language
English
10
Euro
pages 10
7th International Conference on
Social Science Methodology
Campus di Monte
Sant’Angelo Naples, Italy, Europe
RC33
September 1-5, 2008
Chair:
Dorien DeTombe & Rosanna Memoli
International Research Society on Methodology of Societal Complexity
Euro working Group on Methodology of Societal Complexity
P.O. Box. 3286, 1001 AB Amsterdam,
The
E-Mail:
DeTombe@nosmo.nl
http://www.geocities.com/doriendetombe
Methodology
of Social Research, Faculty of Statistic -"
E-Mail:
Rosanna.Memoli@uniroma1.it
The
subject of Methodology Handling Complex Societal Issues:
Methodology of Handling Complex Societal Issues focuses on methods and tools for analyzing, structuring, guiding and evaluating complex societal problems.
Complex
societal problems are often policy problems that can occur in many fields,
like in the Agro-industry (Mad-Cow disease, BSE; Foot- and Mouth disease;
Fowl Plague), in the transportation sector, in healthcare (Malaria, HIV/AIDS,
Sars, Flu), in Water affairs. It focuses also on handling local safety
problems like large city issues and natural disasters as flood and
hurricanes and global safety problems like war, terrorism. Although many of
these issues have a different cause, they have so much in comment that they
can be approached in the same way. Besides that, being in
Complex
societal problems, as such, are unstructured, dynamical and constantly
changing and have a large impact on society on macro, meso and on micro
level.
Handling
complex societal problems needs a special interdisciplinary approach. The
content knowledge comes from content experts. The process knowledge comes
from facilitators. The attention of the research group is on the methods and
tools facilitators need for supporting these kinds of problems. The
facilitators use methods specially created for the field of societal
problems combined with methods and insights derived from their original
field like medicine, law, economics, societal sciences, methodology,
mathematics, computer sciences, technology, engineering sciences, chaos
theory and operational research. Often a combination of methods is needed.
In this way the field uses all kind of methods from social sciences and
operational research. An often-used approach is simulation. A simulation
model is one of the powerful tools to describe societal complexity. With
simulation models one cannot only understand the causal relations between
the phenomena but also see what effect changes have.
The
set of lectures focuses on methodology of handling real life complexity with
an emphasis on global safety, sustainable development and healthcare
Keywords: Methodology, complex societal issues, decisions, sustainable development, global safety, healthcare
Stream:
Methodology of Societal Complexity
Session I:
Societal Complexity: Safety
and Healthcare
Chair:
Dorien DeTombe
International Research Society on Methodology of Societal Complexity
Euro working Group on Methodology of Societal Complexity
P.O. Box. 3286, 1001 AB Amsterdam,
The
E-Mail:
DeTombe@nosmo.nl
http://www.geocities.com/doriendetombe
Session II: Societal
Complexity and Sustainable Development
Chair: Rosanna Memoli
Full Professor Methodology of Social
Research, Faculty of Statistic -"
E-Mail:
Rosanna.Memoli@uniroma1.it
Abstracts
Session I:
Societal Complexity: Safety
and Healthcare
Chair:
Dorien DeTombe
International Research Society on Methodology of Societal Complexity
Euro working Group on Methodology of Societal Complexity
P.O. Box. 3286, 1001 AB Amsterdam,
The
E-Mail:
DeTombe@nosmo.nl
http://www.geocities.com/doriendetombe
I-1 Group
decision-making through Cognition, Conviction, Collaboration, Confrontation
and Action-Participation
José
G. Hernández R. MSc
Universidad Metropolitana,
Escuela de Ingeniería de Sistemas.
Caracas Venezuela.
jhernandez@unimet.edu.ve
María
J. García G. MSc
Minimax Consultores C.A. Gerencia General.
Apartado 78239. Caracas 1074 Venezuela.
MJGarcia.Minimax@mercaglob.com
When social groups try to solve problems affecting their community, when getting to the process of making decisions, it is possible that conflicts arise, since each of the members of the group usually have different visions from the problem and are affected in different ways, for which his perspectives and alternatives of solution take very diverse approaches.
A methodology created to help to minimize these conflicts that arise in the moment of choosing possible alternatives of solution before problems of the communities is Cognition (Knowledge), Conviction, Collaboration, Confrontation and Action-Participation (4C-AP).
The 4C-AP, it gathers many of their premises from other techniques of group decision making such as: Nominal group, Brains storms, Decisions by consensus, The Delphi technique, Didactic interaction, Collective Negotiation, between others. Taking aspects of each of them it presents its five essential steps that it is to take to the group of decision for the stages of Cognition (Knowledge) of the problem, Conviction about possible alternatives, Collaboration in the construction of a better alternative, Confrontation as for promoting the best alternative and Action-Participation, in the sense that any process of making decisions must lead to action.
This 4C-AP technique, does not need any type of previous knowledge about decision making and in extreme cases only the knowledge on the problem that needs to be solved is necessary, for which it represents an important alternative to be applied in communities of low economic income, in order to choose alternatives of solution for the problems that affect them normally.
From everything previous the goal of this work arises: To show across a hypothetical case as the technique Cognition (Knowledge), Conviction, Collaboration, Confrontation and Action-Participation (4C-AP), can be used to search for alternatives of solution to problems that affect social groups of scarce resources.
Key words: Social problems, Cognition (Knowledge), Conviction, Collaboration, Confrontation, Action-Participation, Groups making decisions.
I-2 New
models and concepts for handling complex societal problems: new tools,
results and prospects
Prof. dr. Alexander Makarenko, Prof.
Institute for applied system analysis at National technical university of Ukraine (KPI),
Prospect
Pobedy 37,
Considering complex societal systems requires the applications of all existing recently scientific and social tools. System analysis and mathematical modeling give a large variety of concepts and models for understanding and foreseen of social system behavior. Existing of many problems and tools requires the reconsidering of possible goals of societal transformations, possible problems and review of possibilities, advantages and drawbacks of existing models. Also for many current practical problems the development of new models is necessary.
So in the first part of this talk the critical review of existing models and presumable research problems are proposed. System dynamics, differential equations, master equations, cellular automata, multiagent models, networks models are discussed.
Then some absolutely new models of social systems proposed by author are described. The models are of neuronet types with associative memory property and accounting of mentality of individuals of social systems. Accounting of anticipation property of individuals allows to propose the frame for considering multiplicity of scenarios in social systems and to consider the decision - making in such systems.
The applications of proposed concepts for many problems in societal systems are described. The list of applications includes the next issues: sustainable development, cities evolution, crowd movements, opinion formation, organization evolution, eGovernment, complexity definitions.
I-3
Education
and Change : a New Structural Approach
R.
Memoli, B. Baldazzi, S.Bovadilla, A.Cinti, M. Pantoja, A.Passero,S. Zicari
Sapienza
University of Rome
Italy
Europe
Rosanna.memoli@uniroma1.it
Culture
and knowledge are agents of reproduction and change. The educational
policies, aimed to
transfer
culture, values, norms and to stimulate new knowledge, are oriented to
social, economical and political development. Therefore educational system
goes through the societal system interacting at level of organization and
social structure, as well as at level of individuals mechanism and actions.
The framework of an educational system is not a one way decision-making
process, but is the result of a complex development. Often future
expectations based on current assessments are not realized, since it is
difficult to verify the various dimensions and trajectories of change.
It is
proposed a model for the evaluation of an university system, adopting a new
structural
approach,
using the concept of social capital and a research strategy based on social
networks
analysis.
In the form of an Italian case study, the paper presents results aimed to
show the validity of an integrated approach assuming the existence of
several techniques, able to study a phenomenon under different aspects and
in terms of their structural patterning. The focus is on the multi-method
strategies and tools for handling complex problems characterized by high
levels of uncertainty.
Session II: Societal
Complexity and Sustainable Development
Chair: Rosanna Memoli
Full Professor Methodology of Social
Research, Faculty of Statistic -"
E-Mail:
Rosanna.Memoli@uniroma1.it
II-1 Methodology for
societal complexity: the climate change example
Dr Dorien DeTombe (MSc. Ph.D.)
Chair
International Research Society on
Methodology Societal Complexity,
P.O.
Box. 3286, 1001 AB Amsterdam, The Netherlands, Europe
Tel:
+31 20 6927526 Email: detombe@nosmo.nl
http://www.geocities.com/doriendetombe
Abstract
Scientific
as well as politically debates are fighting over attention on the subject of
climate change. Climate change is a complex societal issue which implicates
that the situation has to be analysed according to the theory of societal
complexity. Each complex societal problem contains three basic element:
knowledge, power and emotion. The Compram methodology is a scientifically
based methodology based on the theory of societal complexity which gives
guidelines to handle real life complex societal problems. The methodology
gives directions to analyse, discuss, make scenario’s, negotiate, make
decisions and change complex societal problems. A problem handling team of
experts is invited to make a conceptual model of the problem, then the main
actors are invited in order to make fruitful sustainable decisions for
interventions and implementations. The
Compram methodology has six basic steps: knowledge, power, negotiation,
societal reaction (emotions), implementation and evaluation. Each step is
performed by a group of problem handlers guided by a facilitator, selected
by a problem owner.
Thinking and handling according to the Compram methodology supports a more
sustainable definition and more sustainable interventions for changing a
complex societal problem. The Compram methodology is a framework methodology
that gives within the direction of the basic steps room for all kinds of
other methods and tools, such a the seven–layer model for communication
including system dynamic modelling.
Climate
change is used to explain the theory and the methodology.
Climate change can be a threat to safety. The Compram methodology is advised
by the OECD to handle complex societal issues, on global safety.
.
II-2
The complexity of
securing the interests of children born of war in post-conflict situations
Dr.
Ingvill C. Mochmann
Head
of ZA-EUROLAB
European
Data Laboratory for Comparative Social Research GESIS-ZA Bachemer Str. 40
D-50931
Cologne phone +49 221 47694-65
email
http://www.mothersinscience.eu
Throughout
history, there have probably always been children born during and after
conflicts and wars were the father has been a member of an enemy, allied or
peacekeeping force and the mother a local citizen. Knowledge available so
far indicates that the consequences for many of these children have been
devastating, independent of whether the relationship between mother and
father was of a loving or exploitative nature. They are exposed to among
others hatred and rejection in family and community, stigmatisation both at
local and state level and even infanticide. The challenge in securing the
interest of these children is complex and includes many different aspects
such as for example national and international law (which citizenship should
the child have), medical issues (physical and psychological support,
particularly if mother is a rape victim), social services (children of enemy
soldiers may be excluded from these services), information policies (community
members need information that for example rape victims and their children
and also girl child soldiers and their babies are victims as well). This
paper will present interdisciplinary approaches, methods and co-operations
existing so far with regard to collecting information on children born of
war and securing their interests. Furthermore, future needs and methods will
be discussed on how to help these children without increasing stigmatisation
or even putting their lives at risk.
Keywords:
complex societal problems, children born of war, stigmatisation, hidden
populations
II-3
Issues of sustainable development and societal complexity in power sector in
india: the methodology of life cycle assessment
Dr. Ashish Singh and Dr. Sanjay
Singh
Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research
Goregaon
(E),Mumbai 400 065, INDIA
Tel:91-22-28400919*269
Fax: 91-22-2841 6399
Email: sanjays@igidr.ac.in and ashishsingh@igidr.ac.in
Over the
past few decades, various changes have taken place in economic and social
institutions in