Abstract Booklet
Volume 19
Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber & Dorien DeTombe
Workshop on
“Complex
Societal Problems,
Sustainable Living and Development”
IAM,
METU,
Complex Societal Problems, Sustainable Living and Development”
IAM, METU,
Ankara, May 13-16,
2008
Volume 19
Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber & Dorien DeTombe (Editors)
ã
Greenhill & Waterfront, Dorien J. DeTombe
Publisher: Greenhill & Waterfront, Europe: Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Guilford,
UK North-America: Montreal, Canada
Contact us:
greenhillwaterfront@hotmail.com
ISBN/EAN 978-90-77171-29-5
Version 001, 14 pages, May 2008
Nur 916 Language English
10 Euro
Poverty, and Schooling in
Hanife Akar
Department of Educational Sciences,
E-Mail:
hanif@metu.edu.tr
The number of internal migration flows in
Flood: a Complex Societal Problem Not a Technical Issue
Climate Change as a Complex Societal Issue
Dorien DeTombe
Chair International Research Society on
Methodology Societal Complexity,
University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands
E-Mail:
detombe@nosmo.nl
Risk prevention of floods in rivers and on coasts is very relevant and
necessary. In the past and in recent years there is a huge amount of economic
and human damage done by the flooding of European rivers, by the Tsunami’s and
due to hurricanes, for instance the Katrina disaster in New Orleans in 2005.
More knowledge on prevention, handling and recovery
afterwards is very relevant. There is a relation between climate change,
sustainable development and flood. Most governments focussing on floods are
looking for technological support and devices. Although technical devices are
necessary and should be, if relevant, developed, they are not the most relevant
issue to prevent flood. Lack of early warning systems was not the problem in
recent floods: in the Katrina disaster (September 2005) most of the knowledge
was available only the political will was missing to protect the poor areas and
the industrial areas from flooding.
In the case of the Tsunami of December 2004 near Indonesia, one phone call to
the coast of Africa would have saved the life of many people there hours after
the tsunami was noticed. Main causes of flood are next to the item mentioned
above: political ignorance and reluctance, corruption and lack of communication.
Floods should be handled as a complex societal problem, where technical
interventions are sometimes necessary and needed, however they should be
imbedded in a political and social context. Complex societal problems contain
knowledge aspect, power and emotion. This can be done according to the
guidelines of the methodology of societal complexity.
Sustainable Development: a Complex Societal Issue
Dorien DeTombe
Chair International Research Society on
Methodology Societal Complexity,
University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands
E-Mail:
detombe@nosmo.nl
Sustainable development is a complex societal problem belonging to the field of
societal complexity and should be handled based on the scientific ideas of this
field. Sustainable development sometimes only refers to agricultural production
and sometimes includes industrial production. We would like to extend the
concept of sustainability to production in general, agricultural production as
well as industrial production, and include the way of production, and the
working conditions. More and more the world is influenced by the capitalist
economic system. Capitalism stimulates and approves of an unequal benefit of
work and profit, which results in extreme differences in power, wealth and work.
In order to have a more sustainable society, capitalism should be socially based
and huge money speculators and transnational firms should be democratically
controlled by international organizations.
Whether it is possible to develop a sustainable world should be carefully
explored. The contemporary and possible future situations have to be analyzed,
and it should be determined whether there is enough support to develop a more
sustainable society. The possibilities can be brought out through carefully
organized multi disciplinary workshops. Here we examine, the nature of
sustainable development, what is needed to reach sustainable development
(knowledge), what is wanted for sustainable development (the goals), how to
reach sustainable development (the power), and how to implement a plan to reach
sustainable development. For analyzing the situation in the world or in a
society we need indicators to measure the situation. Evaluating a society by its
GNP is too limited. The GNP is only based on economic development and excludes
the negative aspects of that development like healthcare threats and pollution.
A better way to evaluate a society is to use the concept of quality of life. The
quality of life can be operationalized, quantified and measured as capitals,
such as cultural, social, economic capital.
The complex process of organizing societies towards a sustainable world can be
guided by using the Compram methodology (DeTombe 1994; 2003). The Compram
methodology is developed to analyze, define, guide and evaluate complex societal
problems. The Compram methodology starts with defining the problem based on
cause-effect models (system dynamic models) built by experts of different
disciplines related to the problem (knowledge), and then the same problem can be
defined by the actors involved in the problem (power). Based on the comparisons
of these models of the problem the actors and experts discuss possibilities for
interventions. By using the guidelines of the Compram methodology one can find
causes of the complex problem and give directions for change.
Designing Sustainable Living in Rural Areas
Ali Gökmen and Inci Gökmen
Department of Chemistry, and Institue of Applied Mathematics, Middle East
Technical University, Ankara, Turkey
E-Mails:
agokmen@metu.edu.tr,
igokmen@metu.edu.tr
A steady increase in world population and economical growth caused excessive use
of resources to such extent that threatens healthy living of present and future
generations. One of the global effects of ever increasing consumption of
resources is climate change. Approaching peak oil, and non-renewable resource
depletion are creating the need for a new world paradigm.
An education program presenting a holistic training about the principles of
sustainable living is developed by Gaia Education. Two workshops based on this
education have been organized in October 2007 and February 2008 at METU. It
consists of the four modules of sustainability which are holistic world view,
ecological, economical and social.
Designing a sustainable community at Güneşköy ecovillage initiative continues as
a part of Balaban Valley Project. Building of a new sustainable society is based
on creation of relations between people, nature and resources. On social issues,
for improving the communication skills of people non-violent communication,
group decision making, circular leadership, conflict resolution and making life
enjoyable by games are considered and tried together. Food production by natural
farming is based on creating useful relations between soil, plants and pests.
The fuel for agricultural machinery is supplied by vegetable oil extracted from
plants grown locally. Economical sustainability is developed by applying
community supported agriculture that creates direct relations between food
producer and consumer, and hence both benefits from the relation; one gets
direct income and the other feeds on healthy food.
Attitudes of METU Students toward
Learning English
Duygu Güntek
Department of Modern Languages,
E-Mail:
guntek@metu.edu.tr
As METU is an English-medium university, all the students have to be competent
in that language in order to be able to follow their departmental lessons easily
and cope with the difficulties likely to be confronted in an academic
environment as well as after graduation, in industry. To that aim, Department of
Basic English (DBE) and Modern Languages (DML) work hand in hand, showing
incredible effort to help the students from all the departments. To increase the
quality of the programs and courses offered by the DBE (prep. school) and DML,
some program and course evaluation studies are carried out at certain intervals.
The research committee members prepare and distribute questionnaires to both the
students and the instructors from almost all the departments, asking them to
evaluate the effectiveness of the course objectives, methods and materials used
in the courses, assessment procedures and finally the attitudes of the learners
–referred to as “affective domain” -toward those language courses. The collected
data are collated and analysed both quantatively and qualitatively. Finally, the
results are shared with the house to make the necessary modifications and
improvements in the offered courses. The focus of this session is
specifically on the results of the “attitude” section of the surveys given to
DBE students in 2004-5, the same section of the surveys carried out by the DML
committee to evaluate the ENG 101 course in 2005-6; (Development of Reading and
Writing Skills 1 course offered to the first year students of METU) and finally
the questionnaire and interview results concerning mainly the students’
situation in terms of speaking skills (2008).
Climate Change and
Cognitive Science
Annette Hohenberger
Informatics Institute, Cognitive Science
Program,
E-Mail:
hohenberger@ii.metu.edu.tr
It has only recently been recognized that
Climate Change is anthropogenic to a non-negligible extent (see the fourth
assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
November, 2007). While hitherto climate change has been discussed mainly within
the natural and life sciences and solutions have been sought on the political,
economical, ecological, and technical level, it becomes increasingly clear that
it also has important humanistic, sociological, psychological, pedagogical, and
philosophical aspects. In my talk I will mainly approach the topic from a
cognitive perspective.
The biggest challenge, indeed, may be a
cognitive one, namely that we all have to change our way of thinking and our
behavior. Climate Change has been caused by the concrete behavior of people,
nations, and economies, which must somehow be reflected in the minds of these
people and in the discourse within and between those groups.
Short-comings as well as strengths of the
human mind/brain may be explored that hitherto have contributed to the problem
and which might be relevant to solve it in the future. Possible shortcomings
include limitations of cognitive resources such as memory, in particular
prospective memory, and probabilistic reasoning. It may be that our species is
simply not laid out to overview such large time scales and to keep track of and
predict complex, non-linear and largely unpredictable events in the future. Even
if reasonable predictions can be made humans find it hard to translate this
knowledge into concrete actions, in particular, if this necessitates an
effective change in thinking and acting in everyday life. Uncertainty, fear of
loss and actual loss of acquired privileges and convenience may be only some
negative emotional and factual consequences that complicate human reasoning and
behavior. On the other hand, humans are equipped with cognitive resources that
may overcome (some of) these shortcomings such as anticipatory planning (despite
obvious limitations), mentalizing the future, counterfactual thinking,
imagination, tracking of distal goals and the use of analogies and associations
in order to make successful predictions. A particular problem might be the lack
of immediate effects of one’s own actions: driving a car or riding a bike does
not immediately show any differential effect in the environment. In the face of
missing evidence, the behavior of others and their feedback to one’s own
behavior may be particularly important in shaping behavioral routines and mental
attitudes. Therefore, education and raising awareness will play an important
role in this process, too.
In conclusion, I argue that through the
consideration of cognitive processes involved in human thought and behavior with
respect to Climate Change we may more effectively master the multifarious
challenges in the future.
Working with Volunteers: a Complex Societal Problem
Claire Özel
Disability Support Coordinator,
E-Mail:
claire@metu.edu.tr
Working with volunteers can be a win-win situation. From the outside it might
seem easy? Give some unpaid people tasks; watch the work get done as they gain
experience? But reaching that position is a challenging process of defining
tasks clearly, giving tasks according to abilities, giving enough information
for all to access, allowing for feedback, but knowing that many will not tell
you what you really need to know. What are the critical factors? How should
they be balanced to maintain the momentum of the Strong Days? Claire Ozel has
worked in many groups as a volunteer, and is now attempting to motivate people
to volunteer for several projects. She is Disability Support Coordinator at
METU.
Community Participation in Kerkenes
Francoise Summers, Soofia Tahira Elias-Ozkan
Department of Architecture, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey
E-Mails: fsummers@metu.edu.tr, soofia@metu.edu.tr
The Kerkenes Eco-center was established in the village of Shahmuratli in Yozgat, near an archeological site on top of the Kerkenes mountain. The Eco-center has been instrumental in introducing water saving schemes, the use of renewable energy resources, recycling, composting, and appropriate building techniques to the villagers and the students of the Department of Architecture at METU. This presentation will throw light on the participation of the students as well as the rural population in the Eco-center's activities towards a sustainable future.
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Applied Mathematics Used in Complex Societal Problems
Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber, Zeynep Alparslan-Gök
Institute of Applied Mathematics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara,
Turkey
Dorien DeTombe
University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Halil Önder
Department of Civil Engineering, Middle East Technical University, Ankara,
Turkey
Erik Kropat
Department of Mathematics, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany
Zafer-Korcan Görgülü
Department of Informatics, Universitaet der Bundeswehr, Munich, Germany
E-Mail: gweber@metu.edu.tr
The development of high-throughput technologies and the availability of large
data sets now allow gaining deeper insights in the dynamic behaviour of complex
dynamical systems and opens promising avenues for further scientific progress in
medicine, health care, technology and life sciences. For a mathematical analysis
of such systems so-called eco-finance networks have been recently introduced. An
important example of these networks is given by the Technology-Emissions-Means
model in the context of environmental protection and CO2-emission control. This
particular case of eco-finance networks has been developed for a mathematical
investigation of international collaborations and Joint Implementation Programs
in the framework of the Kyoto protocol. We demonstrate how this model could be
analyzed by eco-finance networks with respect to errors and uncertain
measurement data.
Data Mining Used in Complex Societal Problems
Gerhard-Wilhelm
Weber,
Pakize
Taylan, Devin
Sezer, Gülser
Köksal, Inci
Batmaz,
Fatma
Yerlikaya,
Süreyya
Özöğür
Institute of Applied Mathematics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara,
Turkey
Erik Kropat
Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany
Zafer-Korcan Görgülü
Department of Informatics,
Universitaet der Bundeswehr, Munich,
Germany
Dorien DeTombe
University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands
E-Mail: gweber@metu.edu.tr
Many real-world applications from finance, science and technology can be analyzed by least squares estimation and the classification tool CART. One of its most advanced and refined versions and modifications called MARS (Multivariate adaptive regression spline). We investigate this statistical tool by means of Tikhonov regularization and conic quadratic programming and, herewith, offer an alternative view and invite to future research and practical applications. Then, we give a short introduction into Support Vector Machines (SVM) which belong to the very important classification tools, and have a look at the case of infinite kernels which is new research topic. Throughout the talk, the relevance to extracting information, especially, on development and societal problems, is reflected.
Gene-Environment Networks –
the Financial Aspect Included
Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber, Zeynep Alparslan-Gök
Institute of Applied Mathematics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara,
Turkey
Erik Kropat
Department of Mathematics, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany
Zafer-Korcan Görgülü
Department of Informatics, Universitaet der Bundeswehr, Munich, Germany
Dorien DeTombe
University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands
E-Mail: gweber@metu.edu.tr
Gene-Environment Networks provide a conceptual framework for the analysis of
highly interconnected dynamical systems with respect to errors and uncertainty
in life sciences and financial sciences. Given the noise-prone measurement data
we extract nonlinear differential equations to describe and investigate the
interactions and regulating effects between the data items of interest and
certain environmental items. In particular, these equations reflect data
uncertainty by the use of interval arithmetics and comprise unknown parameters
resulting in a wide variety of the model. For an identification of these
parameters Chebychev approximation and generalized semi-infinite optimization
are applied. In addition, the time-discrete counterparts of the nonlinear
equations are introduced and their parametrical stability is investigated by a
combinatorial algorithm which detects the region of parameter stability. This
approach allows an investigation of a wide range of real-world problems and we
explain the interdisciplinary implications with special regard to Operational
Research and financial sciences and introduce the so-called eco-finance
networks.
Short Presentation:
Indonesian Oil
Native Owned and Producing Oil Wells on the
Allen Johnson
USTR chief agricultural trade negotiator
(presentation given by Gerhard-Wilhelm
Weber)