Analyzing Complex Societal Problems






Dorien J. DeTombe

Cor van Dijkum




This book is the result of the First International Conference on Methods and Tools for Analyzing Societal Problems that took place in November 1994 at Delft University of Technology and Utrecht University in the Netherlands.





DeTombe, Dorien J. & C. van Dijkum

Analyzing Complex Societal Problems: a methodological approach / Dorien J. DeTombe & C. van Dijkum (Editors)

Munich; Mering; Hampp, 1996 With ref. - With authors description




ISBN 3-87988-189-8 NE: DeTombe, Dorien J.[Hrsg.]

Subject headings: methodology/ tools/ simulation/ complex societal problems

1996 Dorien J. DeTombe




Dr. Dorien J. DeTombe

Chair International - , Euro - , West-Euro- & Dutch Operational Research Research Group Complex Societal Problems & Issues

P.O. Box. 3286, 1001 AB Amsterdam, The Netherlands, Europe

Tel: +31 20 6927526 E-Mail:

http: //




Publisher: Rainer Hampp Verlag Munchen und Mering Meringzeller Str. 16 D-86415 Mering Germany Fax + 49 8233 307 55




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BIOSTATEMENTS AUTHORS ( in alphabetic order)



Aebi, M.

Markus Aebi is a Research Associate at the Institute of Computer Science, University of Zurich, Switzerland. Prior to his current position he was a Research Fellow at Delft University of Technology, Netherlands. He is working on the subject of risk and safety in traffic. His research interests include model management, hypermedia systems, and risk management.



Bahlmann, J.P.

Prof. Dr Tineke Bahlmann is Professor in Business Economics at the University of Utrecht, The Netherlands. She received her doctorate for a study about strategic reorientation of six Dutch companies: Denken & Doen. Since then she was involved in a lot of change projects in organizations.



Beroggi, G. E.G.

Dr Giampiero E.G. Beroggi is Associate Professor of Policy Analysis at Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands. He was involved in various research and consulting projects in the U.S.A. and Switzerland. His research focuses mainly on decision support systems, environmental risk management, and policy analysis. He holds a Ph.D. in Urban and Environmental Studies, a M.S. in Operations Research & Statistics, both from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute of Technology, Troy, New York, and an M.S. in Civil Engineering from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology.



Birrer, F.A.J.

Drs. Frans A.J. Birrer lectures on the field of Science and Society at the University of Leiden, The Netherlands. His main topic of research is the understanding and evaluation of the role of scientific expertise in society.



Bras-Klapwijk, R.M.

Ir. Remke M. Bras-Klapwijk studied technology in society. She is working as a research assistant at the Faculty of Systems Engineering, Policy Analysis and Management at Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands. She is working on a study about the development and evaluation of participative methodologies for policy analyses in the field of integral chain management.



DeTombe, D.J.

Dr Dorien J. DeTombe studied social science and computer science. She is working in the field of methodology for policy analysis at the Faculty of Systems Engineering, Policy Analysis and Management at the Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands. She published many books about methodology and computer science, recently about the use of chaos theory in social science. She received her doctorate for a study about methods and tools for analyzing complex societal problems, which is still the main topic of her research.



Dijkum, C. van

Dr Cor van Dijkum studied physics and social psychology in Amsterdam. He published many articles and books about methodology, computer science, simulation, and recently about the theory of chaos. He now works as a member of the department of methodology in the Faculty of Social Science of Utrecht University, The Netherlands.



Frowein, J.C.

Dr J. Chris Frowein studied Econometric and Management Information Systems at the University of Groningen, The Netherlands. He received the doctor's degree for his dissertation 'Specification of Expertise'. Since then, he is Assistant Professor of Management at the Faculty of Economics in Groningen. His main research interests are (computer support of) organizational diagnosis and organizational change.



Geurts, J.L.

Prof. Dr Jac. L. Geurts is professor in policy science at Tilburg University, The Netherlands. Before joining the Tilburg University, he worked as a senior strategic consultant for Philips International and held several academic positions at the University of Nijmegen and Michigan. He specialized in the uses of simulations and models for policy development in policy areas where natural and social sciences meet, i.e. technology, environment and health care. His own field of research concerns participatory policy making.



Gruetzman, K.

Dr Kathrin Gruetzmann studied physics and mathematics at the University of Stuttgart, Germany, and specialized in dynamically complex problems. The main emphasis of her research is on decision models in theory and their applications to migration, elections, and traffic systems.



't Hart, H.

Prof. Dr Harm 't Hart studied social psychology at the University of Amsterdam.

He is professor in social science methodology at Utrecht University. He published on public opinion and survey methodology. He is now involved in a longitudinal study of the Dutch youth.



Heyne, G.

Dr Gerton Heyne is senior consultant at the Institute for Applied Social Research of Tilburg University, The Netherlands. He was the leader of the Diagnost-project. His current research interests include decision quality, and gaming/simulation.



Hofinger, C.

Dr Christoph Hofinger is a research fellow at the Institute of Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria, where he is currently involved in projects on electoral behavior, migration, and national innovation systems. He is also doing computer programming for models on election forecasts, flows of vote, and energy consumption for private research institutes in Vienna, Austria.



Jager, J.C.

Dr Johannes C. Jager, is the deputy head of the Center of Public Health Forecasting at RIVM, Bilthoven, The Netherlands, and project leader at the Netherlands Institute of Health Sciences. He coordinated the Concerted Action of the European Communities on Mathematical Modeling of HIV. His research concerns general methodology, modeling and scenario analysis applied to public health and health care.



Joldersma, C.

Dr Cisca Joldersma is lecturer/researcher in policy science at Tilburg University, The Netherlands. Before joining the Tilburg University, she worked as a researcher in public administration and public policy at Twente University. Her major field of research are policy problem analysis, and problem structuring.



Luijn, W.L.M. van

Wim L.M. van Luijn studied at the Military Academy. He worked as human resources manager and as an internal management consultant with De Gruyter, Remington Rand and Philips. He is now entrepreneur in the field of management consultancy in industry and service-organizations and managing partner of Consensus Engineering International B.V. "Decision support consultants".



Meinsma, R.R.

Ir. Ruurd R. Meinsma is currently working as assistant professor at Delft University of Technology in the Faculty of Systems Engineering, Policy Analysis and Management at Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands. His research focuses on the use of simulation and gaming as instruments to deal with interorganizational problems. He was management consultant in the field of information technology for the financial sector.



Postma, Th.J.B.M.

Dr Theo J.B.M. Postma is Associate Professor of Management at the Faculty of Economics, University of Groningen, The Netherlands. He graduated in the field of Business Administration and Management Sciences. Subject of his Ph.D.-research was strategic decision making in hospitals. His current research interests concerns (computer) support for organizational assessment.



Reinders, A.

Arnold Reinders Ms.C. is researcher at the National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection at RIVM, Bilthoven, The Netherlands. His research is applied to public health and cost of health care. He is specialized in general methodology, modeling and using AI techniques in the field of public health.



Roozemond, D.A.

Ir. Danko A. Roozemond studied Civil Engineering at Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands. He is working section of Civil Engineering Informatics at the Department of Infrastructure at the same university. His research is primarily focused on the technical and social effects of new possibilities of information science applied to the transportation sector.



Schuurman, J.G.

Drs. Jan Gerrit Schuurman is researcher at the Faculty of Educational Science & Technology at Twente University, The Netherlands. In addition guest-researcher at the Center for Innovation and Cooperative Technology of the University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands. His present interest are problems which involve either limited predictability or unpredictable limits. Main objective is to seek stabilityís in those situations.



Stuhler, Elmar A.

Dr Elmar A. Stuhler is Akademischer Oberrat at the University of Technology of Munich, Department of Economy and Social Sciences, Freising (Munich), Germany. He studied agriculture and economics. After postgraduate studies at the University of Cambridge, UK, he received his doctorate for a study on decision making (risk reduction on the basis of linear programming) in 1967. Since then he has been involved in inter- and transdisciplinary projects about complex problem solving with focus on cognitive (emotional) person-system-interactions.



Vezjak, M.

Dr Marjan Vezjak studied at University of Ljubljana, Slovenia, where he gained qualification in Electrical Engineering. His further studied include Master of Science and Ph.D. at the Faculty of Electrical and Computer Engineering at the same university. He is working this university lecturing the System Theory, Signal Processing and Environmental Modeling. His research focus at ecology and system theory.



Westerhof, E.J.G.M.

Drs. Eugene J.G.M. Westerhof is a Doctoral Candidate at the Faculty of Economics, University of Groningen, The Netherlands. He graduated in the field of Management Information Systems at this university. The subject of his doctoral research is computer support for organizational diagnosis. His main research interests are organizational diagnosis and -design, computer simulation, and expert systems.



Wolfe, J.

Prof. Dr Joseph Wolfe (Ph.D. New York University) is a Professor of Management at the University of Tulsa. His main research interests have been in the areas of business education materials and practices. Wolfe's research has appeared in such journals as Management Science, Decision Sciences, Simulation & Gaming, and the Academy of management Journal amongst others.



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